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摘要

公司需要早期思维系统来克服可能挑战工业运营的财务困难。Altman Z Score是一个可以通过分析公司的财务报表来预测公司财务困境的模型。本研究采用Altman Z Score模型对上市房地产公司的财务困境进行分析。在该模型中,有5个财务比率指标用于预测财务困境。财务报告数据为2015-2016年的财务报表,共有23家公司。然后将这些计算结果与模糊c均值聚类在两个区域,即安全区域和灰色区域。集群验证测试使用验证值为0.9541的silhouette Index,这表明集群过程是有效的。本研究结果表明,有一家公司被纳入集群灰色地带,即内陆发展有限公司。对财务比率的分析发现,影响最大的是变量X3,其中税前利润的结果非常小,可以影响义务的支付。所以很容易提出财务困境。对于那些一直处于灰色地带的公司来说,他们应该在财务管理方面小心谨慎,以预测财务困境。
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Aplikasi Data Mining Pada Analisis Financial Distress Model Altman z-score Untuk Memprediksi Potensi Kebrangkutan Pada Industri Properti Go-Public Di Indonesia
Early thought systems are needed in companies to overcome financial difficulties that can challenge industrial operations. Altman Z Score is one model that can be used to predict financial distress in a company by analyzing the company's financial statements. This research was conducted to analyze financial distress in property companies going public using the Altman Z Score model. In this model there are 5 financial ratio indicators that are used to predict financial distress. The financial report data used is the financial statements for 2015-2016 and there are 23 companies. The results of these calculations are then clustered with Fuzzy C-Means in two, namely safe zone and gray zone. Cluster validation testing uses the Silhouetee Index with a validation value of 0.9541 which indicates that the cluster process is valid. The results of this study indicate that there is one company that is included in the cluster gray zone, namely Intiland Development Tbk. Analysis of financial ratios found that the most influential is the variable X3 where the results of profits before tax are very small can affect payment of obligations. So it's easy to bring up financial distress conditions. And for those companies that have been in the gray zone condition, they are expected to be careful in financial management to anticipate financial distress.
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