Optimisation of long-term quarry production scheduling under geological uncertainty to supply raw materials to a cement plant

ABSTRACT The success of a cement production project depends on the supply of raw materials. Long-term quarry production scheduling (LTQPS) based on resource models is essential to maintain a consistent supply to cement plants. Geological uncertainty is inherent due to sparse exploration data in resource models and significant risk factors for not achieving production targets. This research proposes a stochastic framework for LTQPS that considers the impact of geological uncertainty on raw material supply. A clustering algorithm uses multiple simulated deposit models to aggregate blocks into mining cuts. A new stochastic mixed-integer programming model is formulated with two objectives: to minimise the cost for developing the raw mix and the risk of not meeting production targets. The proposed framework is implemented successfully in a limestone deposit in Southern Vietnam, resulting in an increase of 5 million tons (Mt) and a 30% reduction in unit cost over the deterministic mixed-integer programming model.