流域规模咨询网络对泰国北部农业成功适应干旱的贡献

D. Goodwin, I. Holman, C. Sutcliffe, G. Salmoral, Liwa Pardthaisong, S. Visessri, C. Ekkawatpanit, D. Rey
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引用次数: 2

摘要

干旱加剧影响农业生产,造成经济损失、环境退化和社会影响。要向更具弹性的系统配置迈进,就需要了解影响农民在复杂制度背景下适应的过程。社会网络是支持适应能力集体行动的重要组成部分,不断有人呼吁加强气候变化影响下农业治理的网络连通性。通过对泰国北部176名农民的调查,我们探讨了集水区咨询网络中共享的信息特征在多大程度上与适应性相关。统计分析显示,沟通的感知效果以及农民在咨询网络中的相对亲密程度与适应干旱呈正相关。我们确定了地方行动者跨越网络信息瓶颈的能力,以及机构加强信息传播以覆盖网络较少的农民的机会。我们发现,并非所有的适应措施都被认为对未来的干旱有效,并推断出支持参与推广服务、鼓励分享当地知识和经验以及制定政策和干预措施的机会,以加强咨询网络,促进更具抵御力的农业系统。这篇文章是皇家学会科学+会议议题“人类世的干旱风险”的一部分。
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The contribution of a catchment-scale advice network to successful agricultural drought adaptation in Northern Thailand
The intensification of drought affects agricultural production, leading to economic losses, environmental degradation and social impacts. To move toward more resilient system configurations requires understanding the processes that shape farmers' adaptation amidst complex institutional contexts. Social networks are an important part of collective action for supporting adaptive capacity and there are continuing calls to strengthen network connectivity for agricultural governance under the impacts of climate change. Through a survey of 176 farmers in northern Thailand, we explore the extent to which the characteristics of information shared in a catchment advice network are associated with adaptations. Statistical analyses reveal the perceived efficacy of communications as well as farmers’ relative closeness in the advice network to be positively associated with adaptation to drought. We identify a capacity for local actors to bridge information bottlenecks in the network and opportunities for institutions to enhance their dissemination of information to reach less networked farmers. We find that not all adaptations are perceived as effective against future drought and infer opportunities to support engagement with extension services, encourage the sharing of local knowledge and experience and devise policy and interventions to strengthen advice networks for more resilient agricultural systems. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue ‘Drought risk in the Anthropocene’.
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The contribution of a catchment-scale advice network to successful agricultural drought adaptation in Northern Thailand Using machine learning to identify novel hydroclimate states The economics of managing water crises Benchmark worst droughts during the summer monsoon in India Status and prospects for drought forecasting: opportunities in artificial intelligence and hybrid physical–statistical forecasting
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