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Benchmark worst droughts during the summer monsoon in India 印度夏季季风期间最严重的干旱
Pub Date : 2022-10-24 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0291
V. Mishra, M. Mujumdar, S. Mahto
During the summer monsoon (June–September) season, drought poses challenges for agricultural activities and water availability in India. We develop a framework considering the timing, areal coverage and severity that can be used for the assessment of meteorological droughts as the monsoon season progresses. We estimate the benchmark worst droughts within the monsoon season (June, July, August and September) using the long-term (1901–2020) gridded rainfall. The benchmark worst droughts were identified considering the extent and severity of drought using the Drought Severity Coverage Index (DSCI). The worst meteorological drought in June, July, August and September occurred in 1923, 2002, 1937 and 1907 with a return period of 68, 200, 147, 188 years, respectively. The worst drought in the entire summer monsoon season occurred in 1918, which had a return period of 238 years. The benchmark droughts during June 1923, July 2002 and monsoon 1918 were associated with the warm sea surface temperature over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The other two droughts (1937 and 1907) were linked with the off-equatorial warming over the Indo-Pacific region. The leading mode of variability in the Standardized Precipitation Index obtained from empirical orthogonal function analysis showed that the western and central parts of the country are most affected by droughts during the summer monsoon season. The second leading mode exhibited declining trends in rainfall with a bipolar spatial variability centred over the Gangetic Plain and southern India. The estimated DSCI for a 2–500 return period can be used for the drought assessment during the monsoon season in India. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue ‘Drought risk in the Anthropocene’.
在夏季季风季节(6月至9月),干旱对印度的农业活动和水资源供应构成挑战。我们开发了一个考虑时间、面积覆盖和严重程度的框架,可用于评估季风季节进展中的气象干旱。我们使用长期(1901-2020)网格化降雨量估算了季风季节(6月、7月、8月和9月)的基准最严重干旱。利用干旱严重程度覆盖指数(DSCI),考虑干旱的程度和严重程度,确定了基准最严重干旱。最严重的6月、7月、8月和9月气象干旱分别发生在1923年、2002年、1937年和1907年,重现期分别为68年、200年、147年和188年。整个夏季季风季节最严重的干旱发生在1918年,每238年一次。1923年6月、2002年7月和1918年季风期的基准干旱与赤道太平洋的暖海表温度有关。另外两次干旱(1937年和1907年)与印度洋-太平洋地区的赤道外变暖有关。通过经验正交函数分析得到的标准化降水指数的主导变率模式表明,夏季风季中国西部和中部地区受干旱影响最大。第二个主导模态表现出降雨量下降的趋势,并以恒河平原和印度南部为中心呈现两极空间变异。估算的2-500个回归期的DSCI可用于印度季风季节的干旱评估。这篇文章是皇家学会科学+会议议题“人类世的干旱风险”的一部分。
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引用次数: 3
Status and prospects for drought forecasting: opportunities in artificial intelligence and hybrid physical–statistical forecasting 干旱预测的现状与展望:人工智能和物理统计混合预测的机遇
Pub Date : 2022-10-24 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0288
O. Mazdiyasni, S. Jiwa, M. M. Kinnon, A. Carlos-Carlos, S. Samuelsen, JE Schubert, A. AghaKouchak, MG Burgess, EM Costigliolo, C. Frieder, BT Saenz, MC Long, J. DeAngelo, K. Alexander, C. Hong, M. Shaner, K. Caldeira, I. McKay, J. Lloyd, EB Olson, L. Liebermann, J. McBride
Despite major improvements in weather and climate modelling and substantial increases in remotely sensed observations, drought prediction remains a major challenge. After a review of the existing methods, we discuss major research gaps and opportunities to improve drought prediction. We argue that current approaches are top-down, assuming that the process(es) and/or driver(s) are known—i.e. starting with a model and then imposing it on the observed events (reality). With the help of an experiment, we show that there are opportunities to develop bottom-up drought prediction models—i.e. starting from the reality (here, observed events) and searching for model(s) and driver(s) that work. Recent advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning provide significant opportunities for developing bottom-up drought forecasting models. Regardless of the type of drought forecasting model (e.g. machine learning, dynamical simulations, analogue based), we need to shift our attention to robustness of theories and outputs rather than event-based verification. A shift in our focus towards quantifying the stability of uncertainty in drought prediction models, rather than the goodness of fit or reproducing the past, could be the first step towards this goal. Finally, we highlight the advantages of hybrid dynamical and statistical models for improving current drought prediction models. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue ‘Drought risk in the Anthropocene’.
尽管天气和气候模拟有了重大改进,遥感观测也有了大量增加,但干旱预测仍然是一项重大挑战。在对现有方法的回顾之后,我们讨论了改进干旱预测的主要研究差距和机会。我们认为当前的方法是自顶向下的,假设过程和/或驱动因素是已知的。从一个模型开始,然后将其强加于观察到的事件(现实)。在实验的帮助下,我们表明有机会开发自下而上的干旱预测模型,即:从现实(这里是观察到的事件)出发,并搜索能够工作的模型和驱动程序。人工智能和机器学习的最新进展为开发自下而上的干旱预测模型提供了重要的机会。无论何种干旱预测模型(如机器学习、动态模拟、基于模拟),我们都需要将注意力转移到理论和输出的鲁棒性上,而不是基于事件的验证。我们将重点转向对干旱预测模型不确定性的稳定性进行量化,而不是拟合优度或重现过去,这可能是实现这一目标的第一步。最后,强调了动态和统计混合模型在改进现有干旱预测模型方面的优势。这篇文章是皇家学会科学+会议议题“人类世的干旱风险”的一部分。
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引用次数: 17
Using machine learning to identify novel hydroclimate states 使用机器学习来识别新的水文气候状态
Pub Date : 2022-10-24 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0287
K. Marvel, B. Cook
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter drought risk in the future. However, droughts are not uncommon or unprecedented, as documented in tree-ring-based reconstructions of the summer average Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Using an unsupervised machine-learning method trained on these reconstructions of pre-industrial climate, we identify outliers: years in which the spatial pattern of PDSI is unusual relative to ‘normal' variability. We show that in many regions, outliers are more frequently identified in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This trend is more pronounced when the regional drought atlases are combined into a single global dataset. By definition, outlier patterns at the 10% level are expected to occur once per decade, but from 1950 to 2000 more than 6 years per decade are identified as outliers in the global drought atlas (GDA). Extending the GDA through 2020 using an observational dataset suggests that anomalous global drought conditions are present in 80% of years in the twenty-first century. Our results indicate, without recourse to climate models, that the world is more frequently experiencing drought conditions that are highly unusual in the context of past natural climate variability. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue ‘Drought risk in the Anthropocene’.
预计未来人为气候变化将改变干旱风险。然而,正如基于树木年轮的夏季平均帕尔默干旱严重指数(PDSI)重建所记录的那样,干旱并非罕见或前所未有。通过对这些工业化前气候重建进行训练的无监督机器学习方法,我们确定了异常值:相对于“正常”变率,PDSI的空间格局不寻常的年份。我们表明,在许多地区,在20世纪和21世纪更频繁地发现异常值。当区域干旱地图集合并成一个单一的全球数据集时,这种趋势更加明显。根据定义,10%水平的异常模式预计每十年发生一次,但从1950年到2000年,每十年超过6年被确定为全球干旱地图集(GDA)中的异常值。利用观测数据集将GDA延长至2020年表明,在21世纪80%的年份中存在异常的全球干旱条件。我们的研究结果表明,在没有气候模型的情况下,世界正在更频繁地经历干旱,这在过去的自然气候变率背景下是非常不寻常的。这篇文章是皇家学会科学+会议议题“人类世的干旱风险”的一部分。
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引用次数: 3
The contribution of a catchment-scale advice network to successful agricultural drought adaptation in Northern Thailand 流域规模咨询网络对泰国北部农业成功适应干旱的贡献
Pub Date : 2022-10-24 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0293
D. Goodwin, I. Holman, C. Sutcliffe, G. Salmoral, Liwa Pardthaisong, S. Visessri, C. Ekkawatpanit, D. Rey
The intensification of drought affects agricultural production, leading to economic losses, environmental degradation and social impacts. To move toward more resilient system configurations requires understanding the processes that shape farmers' adaptation amidst complex institutional contexts. Social networks are an important part of collective action for supporting adaptive capacity and there are continuing calls to strengthen network connectivity for agricultural governance under the impacts of climate change. Through a survey of 176 farmers in northern Thailand, we explore the extent to which the characteristics of information shared in a catchment advice network are associated with adaptations. Statistical analyses reveal the perceived efficacy of communications as well as farmers’ relative closeness in the advice network to be positively associated with adaptation to drought. We identify a capacity for local actors to bridge information bottlenecks in the network and opportunities for institutions to enhance their dissemination of information to reach less networked farmers. We find that not all adaptations are perceived as effective against future drought and infer opportunities to support engagement with extension services, encourage the sharing of local knowledge and experience and devise policy and interventions to strengthen advice networks for more resilient agricultural systems. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue ‘Drought risk in the Anthropocene’.
干旱加剧影响农业生产,造成经济损失、环境退化和社会影响。要向更具弹性的系统配置迈进,就需要了解影响农民在复杂制度背景下适应的过程。社会网络是支持适应能力集体行动的重要组成部分,不断有人呼吁加强气候变化影响下农业治理的网络连通性。通过对泰国北部176名农民的调查,我们探讨了集水区咨询网络中共享的信息特征在多大程度上与适应性相关。统计分析显示,沟通的感知效果以及农民在咨询网络中的相对亲密程度与适应干旱呈正相关。我们确定了地方行动者跨越网络信息瓶颈的能力,以及机构加强信息传播以覆盖网络较少的农民的机会。我们发现,并非所有的适应措施都被认为对未来的干旱有效,并推断出支持参与推广服务、鼓励分享当地知识和经验以及制定政策和干预措施的机会,以加强咨询网络,促进更具抵御力的农业系统。这篇文章是皇家学会科学+会议议题“人类世的干旱风险”的一部分。
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引用次数: 2
The economics of managing water crises 管理水危机的经济学
Pub Date : 2022-10-24 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0295
E. Barbier
The growing risk of water crises, including drought, is one of the greatest challenges in the coming decades. Averting such crises will be especially daunting, given that they are just as much a failure of water management as they are a result of scarcity. A major shortcoming is the persistent underpricing of water. The increasing environmental and social costs associated with freshwater scarcity are not routinely reflected in markets. Nor have we developed adequate policies and institutions to handle these costs. This creates perverse incentives that fail to balance water exttraction with supply, protect freshwater ecosystems and generate water-saving innovations. However, drought is proving to be a catalyst for governance and policy reform, and steps can be taken to overcome the underpricing of water. Several examples are explored to illustrate the economic challenge. They include removing the barriers to water markets and trading, reallocating subsidies for water supply and sanitation to expand delivery in developing countries and reforming environmentally harmful irrigation and agricultural policies. The article also explains how ending underpricing can foster a comprehensive strategy for water-saving innovation that can ‘bend’ the global water use curve. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue ‘Drought risk in the Anthropocene’.
包括干旱在内的水危机的风险日益增加,是未来几十年最大的挑战之一。避免这类危机将尤其令人生畏,因为它们既是水资源短缺的结果,也是水资源管理的失败。一个主要的缺点是水价一直偏低。与淡水短缺有关的日益增加的环境和社会成本通常没有反映在市场上。我们也没有制定足够的政策和制度来处理这些成本。这就产生了不正当的激励措施,无法平衡取水和供水,无法保护淡水生态系统,也无法产生节水创新。然而,事实证明,干旱是治理和政策改革的催化剂,可以采取措施克服水价过低的问题。本文探讨了几个例子来说明经济挑战。它们包括消除水市场和交易的障碍,重新分配水供应和卫生补贴,以扩大发展中国家的供应,改革对环境有害的灌溉和农业政策。这篇文章还解释了结束低定价如何能够促进一项全面的节水创新战略,从而“扭转”全球用水曲线。这篇文章是皇家学会科学+会议议题“人类世的干旱风险”的一部分。
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引用次数: 2
Micro-magnetic stimulation of primary visual cortex induces focal and sustained activation of secondary visual cortex. 对初级视觉皮层的微磁刺激会诱发次级视觉皮层的局灶性持续激活。
Pub Date : 2022-07-25 Epub Date: 2022-06-06 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0019
Seung Woo Lee, Shelley I Fried

Cortical visual prostheses that aim to restore sight to the blind require the ability to create neural activity in the visual cortex. Electric stimulation delivered via microelectrodes implanted in the primary visual cortex (V1) has been the most common approach, although conventional electrodes may not effectively confine activation to focal regions and thus the acuity they create may be limited. Magnetic stimulation from microcoils confines activation to single cortical columns of V1 and thus may prove to be more effective than conventional microelectrodes, but the ability of microcoils to drive synaptic connections has not been explored. Here, we show that magnetic stimulation of V1 using microcoils induces spatially confined activation in the secondary visual cortex (V2) in mouse brain slices. Single-loop microcoils were fabricated using platinum-iridium flat microwires, and their effectiveness was evaluated using calcium imaging and compared with that of monopolar and bipolar electrodes. Our results show that compared to the electrodes, the microcoils better confined activation to a small region in V1. In addition, they produced more precise and sustained activation in V2. The finding that microcoil-based stimulation propagates to higher visual centres raises the possibility that complex visual perception, e.g. that requiring sustained synaptic inputs, may be achievable. This article is part of the theme issue 'Advanced neurotechnologies: translating innovation for health and well-being'.

旨在让盲人恢复视力的皮层视觉义肢需要能够在视觉皮层中产生神经活动。通过植入初级视觉皮层(V1)的微电极进行电刺激是最常见的方法,但传统电极可能无法有效地将激活限制在病灶区域,因此产生的敏锐度可能有限。微线圈的磁刺激可将激活限制在 V1 的单个皮质列,因此可能比传统的微电极更有效,但微线圈驱动突触连接的能力尚未得到探索。在这里,我们展示了在小鼠大脑切片中使用微线圈对 V1 进行磁刺激可诱导二级视觉皮层(V2)的空间局限性激活。我们使用铂-铱扁平微线制作了单环微线圈,并使用钙成像评估了它们的效果,还将其与单极和双极电极进行了比较。我们的结果表明,与电极相比,微线圈能更好地将激活限制在 V1 的一个小区域内。此外,微线圈还能在 V2 中产生更精确、更持久的激活。基于微线圈的刺激可以传播到更高的视觉中心,这一发现为复杂的视觉感知(例如需要持续突触输入的视觉感知)的实现提供了可能性。本文是 "先进的神经技术:将创新转化为健康和福祉 "主题期刊的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Wireless interfaces for brain neurotechnologies 脑神经技术的无线接口
Pub Date : 2022-06-06 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0020
Han-Joon Kim, J. S. Ho
Wireless interfaces enable brain-implanted devices to remotely interact with the external world. They are critical components in modern research and clinical neurotechnologies and play a central role in determining their overall size, lifetime and functionality. Wireless interfaces use a wide range of modalities—including radio-frequency fields, acoustic waves and light—to transfer energy and data to and from an implanted device. These forms of energy interact with living tissue through distinct mechanisms and therefore lead to systems with vastly different form factors, operating characteristics, and safety considerations. This paper reviews recent advances in the development of wireless interfaces for brain neurotechnologies. We summarize the requirements that state-of-the-art brain-implanted devices impose on the wireless interface, and discuss the working principles and applications of wireless interfaces based on each modality. We also investigate challenges associated with wireless brain neurotechnologies and discuss emerging solutions permitted by recent developments in electrical engineering and materials science. This article is part of the theme issue 'Advanced neurotechnologies: translating innovation for health and well-being'.
无线接口使大脑植入设备能够与外部世界进行远程交互。它们是现代研究和临床神经技术的关键组成部分,在决定它们的总体尺寸、寿命和功能方面发挥着核心作用。无线接口使用多种模式——包括射频场、声波和光——在植入设备之间传递能量和数据。这些形式的能量通过不同的机制与活组织相互作用,因此产生了具有截然不同的外形因素、操作特性和安全考虑的系统。本文综述了脑神经技术无线接口的最新进展。我们总结了目前最先进的脑植入设备对无线接口的要求,并讨论了基于每种模式的无线接口的工作原理和应用。我们还研究了与无线脑神经技术相关的挑战,并讨论了电气工程和材料科学最新发展所允许的新兴解决方案。本文是主题“先进神经技术:将创新转化为健康和福祉”的一部分。
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引用次数: 1
Multiscale simulation analysis of passive and active micro/nanoelectrodes for CMOS-based in vitro neural sensing devices 基于cmos的体外神经传感装置被动和主动微纳电极的多尺度仿真分析
Pub Date : 2022-06-06 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0013
Federico Leva, P. Palestri, L. Selmi
Neuron and neural network studies are remarkably fostered by novel stimulation and recording systems, which often make use of biochips fabricated with advanced electronic technologies and, notably, micro- and nanoscale complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS). Models of the transduction mechanisms involved in the sensor and recording of the neuron activity are useful to optimize the sensing device architecture and its coupling to the readout circuits, as well as to interpret the measured data. Starting with an overview of recently published integrated active and passive micro/nanoelectrode sensing devices for in vitro studies fabricated with modern (CMOS-based) micro-nano technology, this paper presents a mixed-mode device-circuit numerical-analytical multiscale and multiphysics simulation methodology to describe the neuron-sensor coupling, suitable to derive useful design guidelines. A few representative structures and coupling conditions are analysed in more detail in terms of the most relevant electrical figures of merit including signal-to-noise ratio. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advanced neurotechnologies: translating innovation for health and well-being’.
神经元和神经网络的研究受到新的刺激和记录系统的显著促进,这些系统通常使用先进的电子技术制造的生物芯片,特别是微纳米级互补金属氧化物半导体(CMOS)。传感器的转导机制模型和神经元活动的记录有助于优化传感装置的结构及其与读出电路的耦合,以及解释测量数据。本文首先概述了最近发表的用于体外研究的集成有源和无源微/纳米电极传感器件,这些器件采用现代(基于cmos的)微纳米技术制造,本文提出了一种混合模式器件电路数值分析多尺度和多物理场模拟方法来描述神经元-传感器耦合,适用于推导有用的设计指南。根据包括信噪比在内的最相关的电气参数,对一些代表性结构和耦合条件进行了更详细的分析。本文是主题“先进神经技术:将创新转化为健康和福祉”的一部分。
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引用次数: 3
Towards an advanced neurotechnological system: colorimetric sensing with a novel grism-based spectrometer, functionalized gold nanoparticles and a heterogeneous embedded system 迈向先进的神经技术系统:以新型格栅光谱仪为基础的比色传感,功能化金纳米粒子和异质嵌入式系统
Pub Date : 2022-06-06 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0016
Gabriel P. Lachance, Élodie Boisselier, Mounir Boukadoum, A. Miled
Neurotransmitter sensing in the brain is crucial for the understanding of neuro-degenerative diseases. Most modern methods for the purpose rely on bulky instruments or are disruptive to the neurotransmitter medium. In this work, we describe and evaluate the design of a novel, compact and non-invasive instrument for neurotransmitter detection based on the colorimetric sensing method. The instrument includes a grism-based spectrometer that measures the wavelength shift of gold nanoparticles that are functionalized with aptamers to act as neurotransmitter-specific markers. It also includes microfluidic and electronic subsystems for sample preparation and control, and processing of the obtained signal. The instrument is tested with gold nanoparticles and its performance is compared to that of a commercial instrument, showing that the designed prototype matches the commercial instrument in performance while being much smaller, and it can surpass it with further improvements. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advanced neurotechnologies: translating innovation for health and well-being’.
大脑中的神经递质感知对于理解神经退行性疾病至关重要。大多数现代方法依赖于笨重的仪器或破坏神经递质介质。在这项工作中,我们描述和评估了一种基于比色传感方法的新型,紧凑和非侵入性神经递质检测仪器的设计。该仪器包括一个基于网格的光谱仪,用于测量金纳米粒子的波长位移,金纳米粒子被适体功能化,作为神经递质特异性标记物。它还包括用于样品制备和控制的微流体和电子子系统,以及所获得信号的处理。用金纳米粒子对该仪器进行了测试,并将其性能与商用仪器进行了比较,结果表明,所设计的样机在性能上与商用仪器相当,而且体积小得多,并且可以进一步改进。本文是主题“先进神经技术:将创新转化为健康和福祉”的一部分。
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引用次数: 2
Small-molecule autocatalytic networks are universal metabolic fossils 小分子自催化网络是普遍存在的代谢化石
Pub Date : 2022-05-23 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0244
Joana C. Xavier, S. Kauffman
Life and the genetic code are self-referential and so are autocatalytic networks made of simpler, small molecules. Several origins of life theories postulate autocatalytic chemical networks preceding the primordial genetic code, yet demonstration with biochemical systems is lacking. Here, small-molecule reflexively autocatalytic food-generated networks (RAFs) ranging in size from 3 to 619 reactions were found in all of 6683 prokaryotic metabolic networks searched. The average maximum RAF size is 275 reactions for a rich organic medium and 93 for a medium with a single organic cofactor, NAD. In the rich medium, all universally essential metabolites are produced with the exception of glycerol-1-p (archaeal lipid precursor), phenylalanine, histidine and arginine. The 300 most common reactions, present in at least 2732 RAFs, are mostly involved in amino acid biosynthesis and the metabolism of carbon, 2-oxocarboxylic acid and purines. ATP and NAD are central in generating network complexity, and because ATP is also one of the monomers of RNA, autocatalytic networks producing redox and energy currencies are a strong candidate niche of the origin of a primordial information-processing system. The wide distribution of small-molecule autocatalytic networks indicates that molecular reproduction may be much more prevalent in the Universe than hitherto predicted. This article is part of the theme issue 'Emergent phenomena in complex physical and socio-technical systems: from cells to societies'.
生命和遗传密码是自我参照的,由更简单的小分子组成的自催化网络也是如此。一些生命起源理论假设在原始遗传密码之前存在自催化化学网络,但缺乏生物化学系统的证明。本研究中,小分子反射性自催化食物生成网络(RAFs)在搜索到的6683个原核代谢网络中被发现,大小从3到619个反应不等。富有机培养基的平均最大RAF大小为275个反应,而含单一有机辅因子NAD的培养基的平均最大RAF大小为93个反应。在富培养基中,除甘油-1-p(古菌脂质前体)、苯丙氨酸、组氨酸和精氨酸外,所有普遍必需的代谢物都产生。在至少2732个raf中存在300个最常见的反应,主要涉及氨基酸的生物合成以及碳、2-氧羧酸和嘌呤的代谢。ATP和NAD是产生网络复杂性的核心,由于ATP也是RNA的单体之一,产生氧化还原和能量货币的自催化网络是原始信息处理系统起源的一个强有力的候选生态位。小分子自催化网络的广泛分布表明,分子繁殖在宇宙中可能比迄今预测的要普遍得多。本文是主题“复杂物理和社会技术系统中的涌现现象:从细胞到社会”的一部分。
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引用次数: 12
期刊
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A
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