Long-term transport decarbonization pathways in the European Union: a strategic energy-economy analysis

ABSTRACT To reach climate neutrality by mid-century, the EU needs to decarbonize its transport sector. Transition options include electrification, biofuels, hydrogen, and e-fuels (synthetic fuels). Owing to their uncertain and disruptive role, we assess the potential contribution of e-fuels deployment to the EU transport decarbonization in line with the region’s climate neutrality ambition in 2050. To do so, we enhance the representation of competing fuels in the PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model. We quantify two contrasting transport scenarios: one with notable contribution from e-fuels, and a second scenario without e-fuels but with maximum use of the alternative options. Findings are arrayed in a Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats analysis. Electrification of private transport mobility in urban and sub-urban areas emerges as a key option in both pathways. However, the two scenarios differ in the other technology and fuel choices, with implications on road freight transport, infrastructure, R&D spending, and maturity requirements for alternative vehicles.