南亚的结构转型:结构转型能保证增长势头吗?

South Asia Economic Journal Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI:10.1177/1391561421989855

R. Jha, S. Afrin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们对四个南亚国家(孟加拉国、印度、斯里兰卡和巴基斯坦)41年(1974-2018年)农业、制造业和服务业在国内生产总值中所占份额的演变及其决定因素进行了建模，以了解它们的结构转型模式。股票的决定因素被分为三大类:“国家基本面”、“政策”和“十年傻瓜”。本文首次探讨了该地区结构转型模式的经验规律及其决定因素。应用广义最小二乘估计技术对面板数据进行估计。我们发现了支持结构转型的混合证据。随着人均收入的增加，农业占比减少，服务业占比增加，这在一定程度上支持了库兹涅茨的假设;然而，制造业的份额显示出更温和的增长，甚至在一些型号规格中有所下降。因此，库兹涅茨的结构转型模型在一定程度上得到了支持，但对这些国家来说并不强烈。Jel: c22, c23, f63, o11

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Structural Transformation in South Asia: Does the Pattern Ensure Growth Momentum?

We model the evolution and determinants of shares of agriculture, manufacturing and services to gross domestic product for four South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan) for 41 years (1974–2018) to understand their structural transformation pattern. Determinants of shares were classified into three broad categories: ‘country fundamentals’, ‘policy’ and ‘decadal dummies’. This is the first article to investigate the empirical regularities of the structural transformation pattern and their determinants for this region. The generalized least squares estimation technique for panel data was applied. We find mixed evidence in support of structural transformation. With the increase in per capita income, the share of agriculture decreases and that of services increases, partially supporting the Kuznets hypothesis; however, the share of manufacturing sector shows a more tepid rise and even decreases in some model specifications. Thus, the Kuznets model of structural transformation is supported to some extent, but not strongly for these countries. JEL: C22, C23, F63, O11

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来源期刊

South Asia Economic Journal Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

0.00%

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期刊介绍： The South Asian nations have progressively liberalized their economies in recent years in an effort to integrate with the world economy. They have also taken steps to enhance multilateral and regional economic integration. Even though the South Asian economies have grown at an average rate of more than 5 per cent over the last few years, roughly 40 per cent of their people still live below the poverty line. Hence, the South Asian region continues to face many challenges of economic and social development. The South Asia Economic Journal (SAEJ) is designed as a forum for informed debate on these issues, which are of vital importance to the people of the region who comprise one-sixth of the world’s population. The peer-reviewed journal is devoted to economic analysis and policy options aimed at promoting cooperation among the countries comprising South Asia. It also discusses South Asia’s position on global economic issues, its relations with other regional groupings and its response to global developments. We also welcome contributions to inter-disciplinary analysis on South Asia. As a refereed journal, SAEJ carries articles by scholars, economic commentators,policy-makers and officials, from both the private and public sectors. Our aim is to create a vibrant research space to explore the multidimensional economic issues of concern to scholars working on South Asia. Among the issues debated in relation to South Asia are: - the implications of global economic trends; - the issues and challenges by WTO; - approaches to industrialization and development; - the role of regional institutions such as the SAARC; - the relationship between SAARC and other regional economic groupings such as ASEAN; - the implications of economic liberalization for trade and investment in the region; - new initiatives that can be launched to enhance economic cooperation among the South Asian countries both on a bilateral and a regional basis.