多层不确定性航空发动机剩余使用寿命预测方法

Ma JiaShun, JianFeng Wu, Yong Zhang
{"title":"多层不确定性航空发动机剩余使用寿命预测方法","authors":"Ma JiaShun, JianFeng Wu, Yong Zhang","doi":"10.1115/1.4053906","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n Uncertainties associated with the prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of random degradation equipment are influenced by such factors as time-varying uncertainty, individual difference, and measurement error. Given this, a predictive method for the RUL of an aero -engine with three layers of uncertainty was proposed. Firstly, historical condition monitoring data was used to generate a Composite Health Index (CHI) for characterizing the performance degradation of the engine. Then a nonlinear Wiener degradation model is built considering three layers of uncertainty. Secondly, the maximum likelihood method is applied to obtain the estimates of the priori distribution of the random coefficients in the degradation model. Then, the degradation states were updated synchronously by applying the Kalman Filtering (KF) algorithm and constructing the state-space model. Finally, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the RUL with three layers of uncertainty was deduced from the total probability formula. A numerical example and a case study comparing several representative methods in the literature were presented using the aero-engine data. The simulation example analysis shows that the proposed method can significantly improve RUL prediction accuracy, and thus it has a particular engineering application value.","PeriodicalId":44694,"journal":{"name":"ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B-Mechanical Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method of Aero Engine With Multilayer Uncertainty\",\"authors\":\"Ma JiaShun, JianFeng Wu, Yong Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1115/1.4053906\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n Uncertainties associated with the prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of random degradation equipment are influenced by such factors as time-varying uncertainty, individual difference, and measurement error. Given this, a predictive method for the RUL of an aero -engine with three layers of uncertainty was proposed. Firstly, historical condition monitoring data was used to generate a Composite Health Index (CHI) for characterizing the performance degradation of the engine. Then a nonlinear Wiener degradation model is built considering three layers of uncertainty. Secondly, the maximum likelihood method is applied to obtain the estimates of the priori distribution of the random coefficients in the degradation model. Then, the degradation states were updated synchronously by applying the Kalman Filtering (KF) algorithm and constructing the state-space model. Finally, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the RUL with three layers of uncertainty was deduced from the total probability formula. A numerical example and a case study comparing several representative methods in the literature were presented using the aero-engine data. The simulation example analysis shows that the proposed method can significantly improve RUL prediction accuracy, and thus it has a particular engineering application value.\",\"PeriodicalId\":44694,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B-Mechanical Engineering\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-02-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B-Mechanical Engineering\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4053906\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B-Mechanical Engineering","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4053906","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

随机降解设备剩余使用寿命预测的不确定性受时变不确定性、个体差异和测量误差等因素的影响。在此基础上,提出了一种具有三层不确定性的航空发动机RUL预测方法。首先,利用历史状态监测数据生成复合健康指数(CHI)来表征发动机的性能退化;然后建立了考虑三层不确定性的非线性维纳退化模型。其次,采用极大似然法对退化模型中随机系数的先验分布进行估计;然后,采用卡尔曼滤波(KF)算法对退化状态进行同步更新,并建立状态空间模型;最后,由总概率公式推导出具有三层不确定性的RUL的概率密度函数(PDF)。以航空发动机为例,给出了数值算例,并对文献中几种有代表性的方法进行了比较。仿真算例分析表明,该方法能显著提高RUL预测精度,具有一定的工程应用价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method of Aero Engine With Multilayer Uncertainty
Uncertainties associated with the prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of random degradation equipment are influenced by such factors as time-varying uncertainty, individual difference, and measurement error. Given this, a predictive method for the RUL of an aero -engine with three layers of uncertainty was proposed. Firstly, historical condition monitoring data was used to generate a Composite Health Index (CHI) for characterizing the performance degradation of the engine. Then a nonlinear Wiener degradation model is built considering three layers of uncertainty. Secondly, the maximum likelihood method is applied to obtain the estimates of the priori distribution of the random coefficients in the degradation model. Then, the degradation states were updated synchronously by applying the Kalman Filtering (KF) algorithm and constructing the state-space model. Finally, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the RUL with three layers of uncertainty was deduced from the total probability formula. A numerical example and a case study comparing several representative methods in the literature were presented using the aero-engine data. The simulation example analysis shows that the proposed method can significantly improve RUL prediction accuracy, and thus it has a particular engineering application value.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
13.60%
发文量
34
期刊最新文献
Verification and Validation of Rotating Machinery Using Digital Twin Risk Approach Based On the Fram Model for Vessel Traffic Management A Fault Detection Framework Based On Data-driven Digital Shadows Domain Adaptation Of Population-Based Of Bolted Joint Structures For Loss Detection Of Tightening Torque Human-Comfort Evaluation for A Patient-Transfer Robot through A Human-Robot Mechanical Model
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1