多层不确定性航空发动机剩余使用寿命预测方法

Ma JiaShun, JianFeng Wu, Yong Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随机降解设备剩余使用寿命预测的不确定性受时变不确定性、个体差异和测量误差等因素的影响。在此基础上,提出了一种具有三层不确定性的航空发动机RUL预测方法。首先,利用历史状态监测数据生成复合健康指数(CHI)来表征发动机的性能退化;然后建立了考虑三层不确定性的非线性维纳退化模型。其次,采用极大似然法对退化模型中随机系数的先验分布进行估计;然后,采用卡尔曼滤波(KF)算法对退化状态进行同步更新,并建立状态空间模型;最后,由总概率公式推导出具有三层不确定性的RUL的概率密度函数(PDF)。以航空发动机为例,给出了数值算例,并对文献中几种有代表性的方法进行了比较。仿真算例分析表明,该方法能显著提高RUL预测精度,具有一定的工程应用价值。
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Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method of Aero Engine With Multilayer Uncertainty
Uncertainties associated with the prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of random degradation equipment are influenced by such factors as time-varying uncertainty, individual difference, and measurement error. Given this, a predictive method for the RUL of an aero -engine with three layers of uncertainty was proposed. Firstly, historical condition monitoring data was used to generate a Composite Health Index (CHI) for characterizing the performance degradation of the engine. Then a nonlinear Wiener degradation model is built considering three layers of uncertainty. Secondly, the maximum likelihood method is applied to obtain the estimates of the priori distribution of the random coefficients in the degradation model. Then, the degradation states were updated synchronously by applying the Kalman Filtering (KF) algorithm and constructing the state-space model. Finally, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the RUL with three layers of uncertainty was deduced from the total probability formula. A numerical example and a case study comparing several representative methods in the literature were presented using the aero-engine data. The simulation example analysis shows that the proposed method can significantly improve RUL prediction accuracy, and thus it has a particular engineering application value.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
13.60%
发文量
34
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