Multi-model analysis of the Adriatic dense-water dynamics

Abstract. This study aims to enhance our understanding of the bora-driven dense-water dynamics in the Adriatic Sea using different state-of-the-art modelling approaches during the 2014–2015 period. Practically, we analyse and compare the results of the following four different simulations: the latest reanalysis product for the Mediterranean Sea, a recently evaluated fine-resolution atmosphere–ocean Adriatic Sea climate model, and a long-time-running Adriatic Sea atmosphere–ocean forecast model used in both hindcast and data assimilation (with 4 d cycles) modes. As a first step, we evaluate the resolved physics in each simulation by focusing on the performance of the models. Then, we derive the general conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere during the investigated period. Finally, we analyse in detail the numerical reproduction of the dense-water dynamics as seen by the four simulations. The likely prerequisites for proper modelling of the ocean circulation in the Adriatic basin, including a kilometre-scale atmosphere–ocean approach, non-hydrostatic atmospheric models, fine vertical resolutions in both atmosphere and ocean, and the location and forcing of the open boundary conditions, are thus discussed in the context of the different simulations. In conclusion, a 31-year-long run of the fine-resolution Adriatic Sea climate model is found to be able to outperform most aspects of the reanalysis product, the short-term hindcast, and the data-assimilated simulation in reproducing the dense-water dynamics in the Adriatic Sea.