泰国烟叶出口的结构性变化:东盟国家烟草控制的影响

J. Jaroensathapornkul
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是调查烟草控制政策的影响,并衡量这些政策如何给泰国烟叶出口带来结构性变化。方法采用二次资料对计量经济学模型进行估计,然后采用Chow检验。结果表明,计量经济学模型的估计值反映了实际出口值的收入弹性为6.621。在Chow检验中,当比较2010年第一季度前后的结果时,泰国烟叶出口的结构性变化具有统计学意义(0.05)。此外,自2010年以来,出口已从旧市场转移到其他东盟国家,即印度尼西亚,菲律宾,马来西亚和老挝人民民主共和国。就实际意义而言,从公共卫生的角度来看,研究结果为欧洲、美国和澳大利亚的控烟政策和措施的有效性提供了证据。另一方面,它们还指出了东盟国家烟草控制政策有待改进的领域,需要进一步调查。从经济角度来看,泰国烟农在过渡时期需要得到政府的支持。
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Structural change in Thailand’s tobacco leaf exports: Implications of tobacco control in ASEAN countries
The purpose of this research is to investigate the implications of tobacco control policies and measure how these have brought about structural changes in Thailand’s tobacco leaf exports. The methodology involved employing secondary data to estimate the econometrics model and then utilizing the Chow test. The findings showed that the estimates from the econometrics model reflect the income elasticity of the real export value of 6.621. In the Chow test, a statistically significant (at 0.05) structural change in Thailand’s tobacco leaf export was apparent when comparing the results before and after the first quarter of 2010. Furthermore, since 2010 the exports have shifted from the old market to other ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Lao PDR. Concerning the practical implications, from a public health perspective, the results provide evidence for the efficiency of tobacco control policies and measures in European countries, the US, and Australia. On the other hand, they also pinpoint an area of improvement for tobacco control policies in ASEAN countries, and further investigation is required. From an economic perspective, Thai tobacco farmers need to be supported by the government during the transition period.
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来源期刊
Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development
Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
28
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