马来西亚棕榈油出口到世界主要棕榈油进口国的实证分析:来自面板协整模型的证据

IF 0.7 Q4 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Operations Research and Decisions Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.37190/ord230105
Nur Ain Mohd Hassan, K. Zakaria, Kamalrudin Mohamed Salleh, Siti Mashani Ahmad
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文探讨了马来西亚棕榈油出口与各自进口国的实际有效汇率、棕榈油消费、植物油生产和GDP增长之间的长期因果关系。该研究基于2004年至2018年10个主要棕榈油进口国的数据,采用了面板协整和因果关系方法。经济增长、有效实际汇率和主要棕榈油进口国生产的其他植物油对马来西亚棕榈油出口的影响是负面的。然而,主要棕榈油进口国的棕榈油消费被发现是马来西亚棕榈油出口的统计上显着的积极决定因素。这一发现表明,消费对出口需求有直接的积极影响。面板格兰杰因果分析显示,进口国生产其他植物油与马来西亚出口棕榈油之间存在单向因果关系。
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An empirical analysis of Malaysian palm oil export to world major palm oil importing countries: evidence from a panel cointegration model
The paper explores the long-term causal relationships of Malaysian palm oil exports with the real effective exchange rate of the respective importing countries, palm oil consumption, vegetable oil production, and GDP growth. The study applied panel cointegration and causality approaches based on data from 10 main palm oil importing countries between 2004 and 2018. The impacts of economic growth, the effective real exchange rate, and the production of other vegetable oils by the main palm oil importing countries on Malaysian palm oil exports were found to be negative. However, palm oil consumption by the main palm oil importers was found to be a statistically significant positive determinant of Malaysian palm oil exports. This finding indicates that consumption has a direct positive effect on the demand for exports. A panel Granger causality analysis revealed a unidirectional causality between importing countries’ production of other vegetable oils and Malaysian exports of palm oil.
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来源期刊
Operations Research and Decisions
Operations Research and Decisions OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-
CiteScore
1.00
自引率
25.00%
发文量
16
审稿时长
15 weeks
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