油价的时变效应是否会影响东盟五国的贸易平衡?

IF 3.1 4区工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2022-04-05 DOI:10.1080/15567249.2022.2053898

Mohammed I. Abu Eleyan, Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık, Esra Ballı

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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要本文采用随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)研究了油价冲击对东盟五国贸易平衡的影响。从该模型得出的时变响应表明，由于石油市场的不同特征，油价冲击的影响在各个经济体之间差异很大。结果还表明，经济活动和实际汇率对五国贸易平衡的显著时变影响。时变响应表明，在全球和地方经济事件期间，油价对贸易平衡的影响更为明显。我们的研究结果对每个国家避免与石油价格波动相关的风险具有重要的政策意义。

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Do the time-varying effects of oil prices affect the trade balances of ASEAN-5 countries?

ABSTRACT This study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on five Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-5) trade balances by employing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR). The time-varying responses derived from this model indicate that the impacts of oil price shocks vary significantly across economies due to their distinct characteristics in the oil market. The results also demonstrate the significant time-varying impact of economic activity and the real exchange rate on the trade balances of the five countries. The time-varying responses show that the effects of oil prices on trade balances are more pronounced during global and local economic events. Our findings have important policy implications for each country to avoid the risks associated with fluctuations in oil prices.

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来源期刊

Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy ENERGY & FUELS-

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

12.80%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

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