英国脱欧公投的全球影响:来自美国企业的证据

Murillo Campello, Gustavo S. Cortés, Fabrício d'Almeida, Gaurav Kankanhalli
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引用次数: 25

摘要

我们表明,2016年英国脱欧公投导致美国企业在美国境内削减就业和投资。利用企业层面的数据,我们证明这些影响是由资本和劳动力的可逆性程度调节的。美国的失业情况在工人技能较低、工会化程度较高的行业尤为明显。在英国,可重新配置资本较少、对离岸投入依赖程度高的公司削减投资最多。关于美国几乎所有机构的数据也表明,对机构周转率(新开和关闭)产生了可衡量的负面影响。我们的研究结果表明,外国出生的政治不确定性如何跨越国界,影响国内资本形成和劳动力配置。
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Global Effects of the Brexit Referendum: Evidence from US Corporations
We show that the 2016 Brexit Referendum led American corporations to cut jobs and investment within US borders. Using establishment-level data, we document that these effects were modulated by the degree of reversibility of capital and labor. American job losses were particularly pronounced in industries with less skilled and more unionized workers. UK-exposed firms with less redeployable capital and high input-offshoring dependence cut investment the most. Data on the near-universe of US establishments also point to measurable, negative effects on establishment turnover (openings and closings). Our results demonstrate how foreign-born political uncertainty is transmitted across international borders, shaping domestic capital formation and labor allocation.
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