首页 > 最新文献

National Bureau of Economic Research最新文献

英文 中文
Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle 最大就业和参与周期
Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29222
B. Hobijn, A. Sahin
We investigate the source, magnitude, and unevenness of the procyclical forces that shape labor force participation, i.e., the participation cycle, which are important for the implementation of the maximum employment mandate. We show that these forces can be analyzed in real time using a flow decomposition of the changes in the labor force participation rate. The decomposition reveals that the source of the participation cycle is fluctuations in job-loss and job-finding rates, rather than cyclical movements in labor force entry and exit rates. The magnitude of the participation cycle is large. Cyclical downward pressures on employment from participation are two-thirds that of unemployment. Moreover, the participation cycle delays the recovery in employment because it lags the unemployment cycle. It also amplifies the unevenness of the impact of recessions. Groups that see large increases in their unemployment rates also experience more pronounced participation cycles. Despite differences in their magnitudes, the source of the participation cycle is the same for all groups. Application of our method to the COVID-19 Recession suggests that, as of June 2021, the bulk of the drop in the participation rate since the onset of the pandemic is cyclical and that the cyclical recovery in participation likely will trail that of the unemployment rate.
我们调查了形成劳动力参与的顺周期力量的来源、幅度和不均匀性,即参与周期,这对实现最大就业任务很重要。我们表明,这些力量可以使用劳动力参与率变化的流动分解来实时分析。分解表明,参与周期的来源是失业和找工作率的波动,而不是劳动力进入和退出率的周期性变动。参与周期的规模很大。参与率对就业的周期性下行压力是失业率的三分之二。此外,参与周期会延迟就业复苏,因为它滞后于失业周期。它还放大了衰退影响的不均衡性。失业率大幅上升的群体也会经历更明显的参与周期。尽管规模不同,但所有群体参与周期的来源是相同的。将我们的方法应用于2019冠状病毒病衰退表明,截至2021年6月,自大流行爆发以来,参与率的大部分下降是周期性的,参与率的周期性复苏可能会落后于失业率的复苏。
{"title":"Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle","authors":"B. Hobijn, A. Sahin","doi":"10.3386/w29222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29222","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the source, magnitude, and unevenness of the procyclical forces that shape labor force participation, i.e., the participation cycle, which are important for the implementation of the maximum employment mandate. We show that these forces can be analyzed in real time using a flow decomposition of the changes in the labor force participation rate. The decomposition reveals that the source of the participation cycle is fluctuations in job-loss and job-finding rates, rather than cyclical movements in labor force entry and exit rates. The magnitude of the participation cycle is large. Cyclical downward pressures on employment from participation are two-thirds that of unemployment. Moreover, the participation cycle delays the recovery in employment because it lags the unemployment cycle. It also amplifies the unevenness of the impact of recessions. Groups that see large increases in their unemployment rates also experience more pronounced participation cycles. Despite differences in their magnitudes, the source of the participation cycle is the same for all groups. Application of our method to the COVID-19 Recession suggests that, as of June 2021, the bulk of the drop in the participation rate since the onset of the pandemic is cyclical and that the cyclical recovery in participation likely will trail that of the unemployment rate.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"97 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85324977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Gay Politics Goes Mainstream: Democrats, Republicans, and Same-Sex Relationships 同性恋政治走向主流:民主党、共和党和同性关系
Pub Date : 2021-07-26 DOI: 10.3386/W29062
Raquel Fernández, Sahar Parsa
Attitudes towards same-sex relationships in the US have changed radically over a relatively short period of time. After remaining fairly constant for over two decades, opinions became more favorable starting in 1992—a presidential election year in which the Democratic and Republican parties took opposing stands over the status of gay people in society. What roles did political parties and their leaders play in this process of cultural change? Using a variety of techniques including machine learning, we show that the partisan opinion gap emerged substantially prior to 1992—in the mid 1980s —and did not increase as a result of the political debates in 1992-'93. Furthermore, we identify people with a college-and-above education as the potential "leaders" of the process of partisan divergence.
在相对较短的时间内,美国人对同性关系的态度发生了根本性的变化。在保持了20多年的稳定之后,人们的观点从1992年开始变得更加有利。1992年是美国总统选举年,民主党和共和党在同性恋者的社会地位问题上采取了截然相反的立场。政党及其领导人在这一文化变革过程中扮演了什么角色?使用包括机器学习在内的各种技术,我们表明,党派意见差距在1992年之前(即20世纪80年代中期)就已经出现了,并且没有因为1992年至93年的政治辩论而增加。此外,我们认为受过大学及以上教育的人是党派分歧过程的潜在“领导者”。
{"title":"Gay Politics Goes Mainstream: Democrats, Republicans, and Same-Sex Relationships","authors":"Raquel Fernández, Sahar Parsa","doi":"10.3386/W29062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W29062","url":null,"abstract":"Attitudes towards same-sex relationships in the US have changed radically over a relatively short period of time. After remaining fairly constant for over two decades, opinions became more favorable starting in 1992—a presidential election year in which the Democratic and Republican parties took opposing stands over the status of gay people in society. What roles did political parties and their leaders play in this process of cultural change? Using a variety of techniques including machine learning, we show that the partisan opinion gap emerged substantially prior to 1992—in the mid 1980s —and did not increase as a result of the political debates in 1992-'93. Furthermore, we identify people with a college-and-above education as the potential \"leaders\" of the process of partisan divergence.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83028805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Which Markets (Don't) Drive Pharmaceutical Innovation? Evidence From U.S. Medicaid Expansions 哪些市场(不)推动制药创新?来自美国医疗补助扩张的证据
Pub Date : 2021-05-10 DOI: 10.3386/W28755
Craig L. Garthwaite, Rebecca M. Sachs, A. Stern
Pharmaceutical innovation policy involves managing a tradeoff between high prices for new products in the short-term and stronger incentives to develop products for the future. Prior research has documented a causal relationship between market size and pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) activities. The existing literature, however, provides no evidence of how this relationship varies across markets. We investigate whether recent expansions in state Medicaid programs caused an increase in R&D. We find no evidence of a response, potentially a result of Medicaid’s low reimbursement for pharmaceuticals, suggesting low(er) price markets may have different dynamics with respect to innovation policy.
制药创新政策涉及在短期内新产品的高价格和为未来开发产品的更强激励之间进行权衡。先前的研究已经证明了市场规模与制药研发活动之间的因果关系。然而,现有文献没有提供证据证明这种关系在不同市场之间是如何变化的。我们调查了最近国家医疗补助计划的扩张是否导致了研发的增加。我们没有发现任何回应的证据,这可能是由于医疗补助计划对药品的低报销造成的,这表明低价市场在创新政策方面可能有不同的动态。
{"title":"Which Markets (Don't) Drive Pharmaceutical Innovation? Evidence From U.S. Medicaid Expansions","authors":"Craig L. Garthwaite, Rebecca M. Sachs, A. Stern","doi":"10.3386/W28755","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28755","url":null,"abstract":"Pharmaceutical innovation policy involves managing a tradeoff between high prices for new products in the short-term and stronger incentives to develop products for the future. Prior research has documented a causal relationship between market size and pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) activities. The existing literature, however, provides no evidence of how this relationship varies across markets. We investigate whether recent expansions in state Medicaid programs caused an increase in R&D. We find no evidence of a response, potentially a result of Medicaid’s low reimbursement for pharmaceuticals, suggesting low(er) price markets may have different dynamics with respect to innovation policy.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88048603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Welfare and Output with Income Effects and Taste Shocks 收入效应与品味冲击下的福利与产出
Pub Date : 2021-05-10 DOI: 10.3386/W28754
D. Baqaee, Ariel T. Burstein
We provide a non-parametric characterization of how welfare responds to changes in budget and production possibility sets when preferences are non-homothetic or subject to shocks, in both partial and general equilibrium. We generalize Hulten’s theorem, which is the basis for constructing aggregate quantities, to this context. We identify a new bias in measures of real consumption. This bias depends on the covariance of price changes and expenditure changes due to income effects or preference shocks. We apply our results to long-run and short-run phenomena. In the long-run, we show that structural transformation, if caused by income effects, is roughly twice as important for welfare than what is implied by standard measures of Baumol’s cost disease. In the short-run, we show that when firms’ demand shocks are correlated with their supply shocks, industry-level price and output indices are biased, and this bias does not disappear in the aggregate. Finally, we show that correlated supply and demand shifters make real GDP and aggregate TFP unreliable metrics for measuring production and productivity, and illustrate this using the Covid-19 crisis.
在部分均衡和一般均衡中,当偏好非同质或受到冲击时,我们提供了福利如何响应预算和生产可能性集变化的非参数表征。我们将胡尔滕定理推广到这种情况下,它是构造总量的基础。我们在衡量实际消费时发现了一种新的偏差。这种偏差取决于由于收入效应或偏好冲击而导致的价格变化和支出变化的协方差。我们将我们的结果应用于长期和短期现象。从长期来看,我们表明,如果由收入效应引起,结构转型对福利的重要性大约是鲍莫尔成本病的标准度量所暗示的两倍。在短期内,我们发现当企业的需求冲击与其供给冲击相关时,行业层面的价格和产出指数存在偏差,并且这种偏差在总体上不会消失。最后,我们表明,相关的供给和需求转移使得实际GDP和总TFP不可靠,无法衡量生产和生产率,并以2019冠状病毒病危机为例说明了这一点。
{"title":"Welfare and Output with Income Effects and Taste Shocks","authors":"D. Baqaee, Ariel T. Burstein","doi":"10.3386/W28754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28754","url":null,"abstract":"We provide a non-parametric characterization of how welfare responds to changes in budget and production possibility sets when preferences are non-homothetic or subject to shocks, in both partial and general equilibrium. We generalize Hulten’s theorem, which is the basis for constructing aggregate quantities, to this context. We identify a new bias in measures of real consumption. This bias depends on the covariance of price changes and expenditure changes due to income effects or preference shocks. We apply our results to long-run and short-run phenomena. In the long-run, we show that structural transformation, if caused by income effects, is roughly twice as important for welfare than what is implied by standard measures of Baumol’s cost disease. In the short-run, we show that when firms’ demand shocks are correlated with their supply shocks, industry-level price and output indices are biased, and this bias does not disappear in the aggregate. Finally, we show that correlated supply and demand shifters make real GDP and aggregate TFP unreliable metrics for measuring production and productivity, and illustrate this using the Covid-19 crisis.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"120 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77434376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas 学校复课、流动性和COVID-19传播:来自德克萨斯州的证据
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28753
Charles Courtemanche, A. Le, Aaron Yelowitz, R. Zimmer
This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school reopenings led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and 800 additional fatalities within the first two months. We then use SafeGraph mobility data to provide evidence that spillovers to adults’ behaviors contributed to these large effects. Median time spent outside the home on a typical weekday increased substantially in neighborhoods with large numbers of school-age children, suggesting a return to in-person work or increased outside-of-home leisure activities among parents.
本文研究了德克萨斯州2020年秋季学校重新开学对县级COVID-19病例和死亡人数的影响。先前的证据表明,如果社区传播率低,并遵守公共卫生准则,学校可以安全开学。然而,在德克萨斯州,重新开放往往与高社区传播和接近容量同时发生,因此难以满足社会距离建议。通过使用事件研究模型和所有学区的手工收集教学模式和开学日期,我们发现了强有力的证据,表明德克萨斯州重新开放学校是逐步的,但大大加速了COVID-19的社区传播。我们首选规范的结果表明,学校重新开学导致头两个月内至少新增43,000例COVID-19病例和800例死亡病例。然后,我们使用SafeGraph流动性数据来提供证据,证明对成年人行为的溢出效应促成了这些巨大的影响。在有大量学龄儿童的社区,一个典型工作日外出时间的中位数大幅增加,这表明父母重返工作岗位,或者在家外休闲活动增加。
{"title":"School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas","authors":"Charles Courtemanche, A. Le, Aaron Yelowitz, R. Zimmer","doi":"10.3386/W28753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28753","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school reopenings led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and 800 additional fatalities within the first two months. We then use SafeGraph mobility data to provide evidence that spillovers to adults’ behaviors contributed to these large effects. Median time spent outside the home on a typical weekday increased substantially in neighborhoods with large numbers of school-age children, suggesting a return to in-person work or increased outside-of-home leisure activities among parents.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81757441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 38
Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission 重返校园:COVID-19期间学校访问对COVID-19传播的影响
Pub Date : 2021-04-05 DOI: 10.3386/W28645
D. Bravata, J. Cantor, N. Sood, C. Whaley
Schools across the United States and the world have been closed in an effort to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. However, the effect of school closure on COVID-19 transmission remains unclear. We estimate the causal effect of changes in the number of weekly visits to schools on COVID-19 transmission using a triple difference approach. In particular, we measure the effect of changes in county-level visits to schools on changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households with school-age children relative to changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households without school-age children. We use a data set from the first 46 weeks of 2020 with 130 million household-week level observations that includes COVID-19 diagnoses merged to school visit tracking data from millions of mobile phones. We find that increases in county-level in-person visits to schools lead to an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses among households with children relative to households without school-age children. However, the effects are small in magnitude. A move from the 25th to the 75th percentile of county-level school visits translates to a 0.3 per 10,000 household increase in COVID-19 diagnoses. This change translates to a 3.2 percent relative increase. We find larger differences in low-income counties, in counties with higher COVID-19 prevalence, and at later stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
美国和世界各地的学校已经关闭,以减轻COVID-19的传播。然而,学校关闭对COVID-19传播的影响仍不清楚。我们使用三差法估计每周学校访问次数变化对COVID-19传播的因果影响。特别是,我们衡量了县级学校访问次数的变化对有学龄儿童家庭的COVID-19诊断变化的影响,相对于没有学龄儿童家庭的COVID-19诊断变化的影响。我们使用了2020年前46周的数据集,其中包括1.3亿个家庭周观察数据,其中包括将COVID-19诊断合并到数百万部手机的学校访问跟踪数据。我们发现,与没有学龄儿童的家庭相比,县级亲临学校次数的增加导致有儿童家庭的COVID-19诊断率上升。然而,影响的幅度很小。从县一级学校访问的第25百分位提高到第75百分位,意味着每1万户家庭的COVID-19诊断增加0.3个。这一变化转化为3.2%的相对增长。我们发现,在低收入县、COVID-19流行率较高的县以及COVID-19大流行的后期阶段,差异更大。
{"title":"Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission","authors":"D. Bravata, J. Cantor, N. Sood, C. Whaley","doi":"10.3386/W28645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28645","url":null,"abstract":"Schools across the United States and the world have been closed in an effort to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. However, the effect of school closure on COVID-19 transmission remains unclear. We estimate the causal effect of changes in the number of weekly visits to schools on COVID-19 transmission using a triple difference approach. In particular, we measure the effect of changes in county-level visits to schools on changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households with school-age children relative to changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households without school-age children. We use a data set from the first 46 weeks of 2020 with 130 million household-week level observations that includes COVID-19 diagnoses merged to school visit tracking data from millions of mobile phones. We find that increases in county-level in-person visits to schools lead to an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses among households with children relative to households without school-age children. However, the effects are small in magnitude. A move from the 25th to the 75th percentile of county-level school visits translates to a 0.3 per 10,000 household increase in COVID-19 diagnoses. This change translates to a 3.2 percent relative increase. We find larger differences in low-income counties, in counties with higher COVID-19 prevalence, and at later stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81011491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 24
Income Dynamics in Sweden 1985-2016 1985-2016年瑞典收入动态
Pub Date : 2021-03-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28527
Benjamin U. Friedrich, Lisa Laun, C. Meghir
This paper analyzes earnings inequality and earnings dynamics in Sweden over 1985–2016. The deep recession in the early 1990s marks a historic turning point with a massive increase in earnings inequality and earnings volatility, and the impact of the recession and the recovery from it lasted for decades. In the aftermath of the recession, we find steady growth in real earnings across the entire distribution for men and women and decreasing inequality over more than 20 years. Earnings dynamics differ substantially by gender, education, and origin. Men face lower volatility than women, but their earnings growth is more closely tied to the business cycle. Earnings volatility is also higher among high-educated and foreign-born workers. We document an important role of social benefits usage for the overall trends and for differences across sub-populations. Higher benefits enrollment, especially for women and immigrants, is associated with higher earnings volatility. As the generosity and usage of benefit programs declined over time, we find stronger earnings growth among low-income workers, consistent with higher self-sufficiency.
本文分析了1985-2016年瑞典的收入不平等和收入动态。20世纪90年代初的深度衰退标志着一个历史性的转折点,收入不平等和收入波动大幅增加,经济衰退的影响和复苏持续了几十年。在经济衰退之后,我们发现20多年来,男性和女性的实际收入在整个分配中稳步增长,不平等现象在减少。收入动态因性别、教育程度和出身而有很大差异。男性面临的波动性低于女性,但他们的收入增长与商业周期的关系更为密切。受过高等教育和在外国出生的工人的收入波动也更大。我们记录了社会福利使用对总体趋势和亚人群差异的重要作用。更高的福利登记率,尤其是女性和移民,与更高的收入波动性有关。随着时间的推移,福利计划的慷慨程度和使用率下降,我们发现低收入工人的收入增长更强劲,这与更高的自给自足相一致。
{"title":"Income Dynamics in Sweden 1985-2016","authors":"Benjamin U. Friedrich, Lisa Laun, C. Meghir","doi":"10.3386/W28527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28527","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes earnings inequality and earnings dynamics in Sweden over 1985–2016. The deep recession in the early 1990s marks a historic turning point with a massive increase in earnings inequality and earnings volatility, and the impact of the recession and the recovery from it lasted for decades. In the aftermath of the recession, we find steady growth in real earnings across the entire distribution for men and women and decreasing inequality over more than 20 years. Earnings dynamics differ substantially by gender, education, and origin. Men face lower volatility than women, but their earnings growth is more closely tied to the business cycle. Earnings volatility is also higher among high-educated and foreign-born workers. We document an important role of social benefits usage for the overall trends and for differences across sub-populations. Higher benefits enrollment, especially for women and immigrants, is associated with higher earnings volatility. As the generosity and usage of benefit programs declined over time, we find stronger earnings growth among low-income workers, consistent with higher self-sufficiency.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77979438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
COVID-19 Has Strengthened the Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption and Domestic Violence COVID-19强化了酒精消费与家庭暴力之间的关系
Pub Date : 2021-03-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28523
Aaron Chalfin, S. Danagoulian, Monica Deza
A large body of evidence documents a link between alcohol consumption and violence involving intimate partners and close family members. Recent scholarship suggests that since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent stay-at-home orders, there has been a marked increase in domestic violence. This research considers an important mechanism behind the increase in domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic: an increase in the riskiness of alcohol consumption. We combine 911 call data with newly-available high-resolution microdata on visits to bars and liquor stores in Detroit, MI and find that the strength of the relationship between visits to alcohol outlets and domestic violence more than doubles starting in March 2020. We find more limited evidence with respect to non-domestic assaults, supporting our conclusion that it is not alcohol consumption per se but alcohol consumption at home that is a principal driver of domestic violence
大量证据证明酒精消费与涉及亲密伴侣和亲密家庭成员的暴力之间存在联系。最近的学术研究表明,自2019冠状病毒病大流行爆发和随后的居家令以来,家庭暴力事件明显增加。这项研究考虑了2019冠状病毒病大流行期间家庭暴力增加背后的一个重要机制:饮酒风险的增加。我们将911呼叫数据与密歇根州底特律酒吧和酒类商店访问的最新高分辨率微数据结合起来,发现从2020年3月开始,访问酒类商店与家庭暴力之间的关系强度增加了一倍以上。我们在非家庭暴力方面发现了更有限的证据,支持我们的结论,即不是饮酒本身,而是家中饮酒是家庭暴力的主要驱动因素
{"title":"COVID-19 Has Strengthened the Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption and Domestic Violence","authors":"Aaron Chalfin, S. Danagoulian, Monica Deza","doi":"10.3386/W28523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28523","url":null,"abstract":"A large body of evidence documents a link between alcohol consumption and violence involving intimate partners and close family members. Recent scholarship suggests that since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent stay-at-home orders, there has been a marked increase in domestic violence. This research considers an important mechanism behind the increase in domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic: an increase in the riskiness of alcohol consumption. We combine 911 call data with newly-available high-resolution microdata on visits to bars and liquor stores in Detroit, MI and find that the strength of the relationship between visits to alcohol outlets and domestic violence more than doubles starting in March 2020. We find more limited evidence with respect to non-domestic assaults, supporting our conclusion that it is not alcohol consumption per se but alcohol consumption at home that is a principal driver of domestic violence","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84229954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Scope Challenges to Social Impact 社会影响的范围挑战
Pub Date : 2021-02-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28406
Monica P Bhatt, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Anuj K. Shah
Over the past 50 years, social science has increasingly become involved in the business of not just understanding social problems, but of helping solve them as well. Progress towards this goal will benefit not just from the growing work on solving the challenge of scale, by which we mean the capacity to effectively reach large numbers of people, but also from more attention to the less-appreciated challenge of scope, by which we mean the capacity to change a large share of the decisions that affect a given person’s outcomes. In this essay, we provide a simple framework to help think about the scope of candidate policies, and highlight some common situations that are often associated with potential for large scope.
在过去的50年里,社会科学不仅越来越多地参与到理解社会问题的事业中,而且还参与到帮助解决社会问题的事业中。实现这一目标的进展不仅将受益于解决规模挑战的不断增长的工作,我们指的是有效地接触大量人群的能力,而且还将受益于对范围挑战的更多关注,我们指的是改变影响特定个人结果的大部分决策的能力。在本文中,我们提供了一个简单的框架来帮助考虑候选策略的范围,并强调了一些通常与大范围潜力相关的常见情况。
{"title":"Scope Challenges to Social Impact","authors":"Monica P Bhatt, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Anuj K. Shah","doi":"10.3386/W28406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28406","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past 50 years, social science has increasingly become involved in the business of not just understanding social problems, but of helping solve them as well. Progress towards this goal will benefit not just from the growing work on solving the challenge of scale, by which we mean the capacity to effectively reach large numbers of people, but also from more attention to the less-appreciated challenge of scope, by which we mean the capacity to change a large share of the decisions that affect a given person’s outcomes. In this essay, we provide a simple framework to help think about the scope of candidate policies, and highlight some common situations that are often associated with potential for large scope.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"493 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76389812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Effects of Negative Equity on Children’s Educational Outcomes 负公平对儿童教育成果的影响
Pub Date : 2021-02-08 DOI: 10.3386/W28428
Vicki Been, I. Ellen, David N. Figlio, A. Nelson, Stephen L. Ross, A. Schwartz, Leanna Stiefel
This study examines the effects of negative equity on children’s academic performance, using data on children attending Florida public schools and housing transactions from the State of Florida. Our empirical strategy exploits variation over time in the timing of family moves to Florida in order to account for household sorting into neighborhoods and schools and selection into initial mortgage terms. In contrast to the existing literature on foreclosure and children’s outcomes, we find that Florida students with the highest risk of negative equity exhibit significantly higher test score growth. These effects are largest among Black students and students who qualify for free or reduced-priced lunch. We find evidence supporting two underlying mechanisms: (1) consumption patterns suggest that families in negative equity may reduce the impact of income losses on consumption by forgoing mortgage payments, and (2) mobility patterns suggest that families exposed to high levels of negative equity may move to schools that are of higher quality on average. While negative equity and foreclosure are undesirable, the changing incentives in terms of mortgage delinquency may have helped families manage the economic shocks caused by the great recession, as well as temporarily reduced the housing market barriers faced by low income households when attempting to access educational opportunities.
这项研究考察了负资产对儿童学习成绩的影响,使用了佛罗里达州公立学校的儿童和佛罗里达州住房交易的数据。我们的实证策略利用了家庭迁移到佛罗里达的时间随时间的变化,以解释家庭分类到社区和学校以及选择初始抵押贷款条款。与现有的关于丧失抵押品赎回权和儿童结果的文献相比,我们发现负资产风险最高的佛罗里达州学生表现出显著更高的考试成绩增长。这些影响在黑人学生和有资格享受免费或减价午餐的学生中最为明显。我们发现了支持两种潜在机制的证据:(1)消费模式表明,负资产家庭可能会通过放弃抵押贷款来减少收入损失对消费的影响;(2)流动性模式表明,高水平负资产家庭可能会搬到平均质量更高的学校。虽然负资产和丧失抵押品赎回权是不可取的,但在抵押贷款拖欠方面不断变化的激励措施可能有助于家庭应对大衰退造成的经济冲击,并暂时减少了低收入家庭在试图获得教育机会时面临的住房市场障碍。
{"title":"The Effects of Negative Equity on Children’s Educational Outcomes","authors":"Vicki Been, I. Ellen, David N. Figlio, A. Nelson, Stephen L. Ross, A. Schwartz, Leanna Stiefel","doi":"10.3386/W28428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28428","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the effects of negative equity on children’s academic performance, using data on children attending Florida public schools and housing transactions from the State of Florida. Our empirical strategy exploits variation over time in the timing of family moves to Florida in order to account for household sorting into neighborhoods and schools and selection into initial mortgage terms. In contrast to the existing literature on foreclosure and children’s outcomes, we find that Florida students with the highest risk of negative equity exhibit significantly higher test score growth. These effects are largest among Black students and students who qualify for free or reduced-priced lunch. We find evidence supporting two underlying mechanisms: (1) consumption patterns suggest that families in negative equity may reduce the impact of income losses on consumption by forgoing mortgage payments, and (2) mobility patterns suggest that families exposed to high levels of negative equity may move to schools that are of higher quality on average. While negative equity and foreclosure are undesirable, the changing incentives in terms of mortgage delinquency may have helped families manage the economic shocks caused by the great recession, as well as temporarily reduced the housing market barriers faced by low income households when attempting to access educational opportunities.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"107 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85582780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
期刊
National Bureau of Economic Research
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1