气候变化对尼日利亚农业和粮食安全影响的证据

Bello O. B., Ganiyu O. T., Wahab M. K. A., Afolabi M. S., Oluleye F., I. S. A., Mahmud J., Azeez M. A., Abdulmaliq S. Y.
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引用次数: 52

摘要

气候变化和随之而来的全球变暖正在对包括尼日利亚在内的许多发展中国家的粮食安全构成威胁,因为农业系统依赖气候的性质以及缺乏应对能力。本文研究了尼日利亚1901—2005年(105 a)温度和降雨的时空格局,利用温度和降雨资料支持区域气候变化的概念及其对农业和粮食安全的影响。还评估了尼日利亚的农业资金和产出水平。1901- 2005年(105年)的年平均气温和降雨量数据来自联合国粮农组织出版物、国家统计局、尼日利亚中央银行公报和国家气象局。采用描述性统计对数据进行分析。结果表明:105 a期间,随着气温升高1.1℃,降水量减少了81 mm;1971-2005年降水量不可预测,气温稳步上升。2001年至2005年的联邦总预算平均每年8240亿奈拉,其中很少一部分(147亿奈拉(1.8%))用于农业部门。实际支出为每年6810亿奈拉,其中114亿奈拉用于农业。在过去的25年里,相对于农业部门在经济中的规模和重要性,农业方面的公共支出出现了低而戏剧性的冲击。从1987年到2000年,产出持续上升,直到2001年下降。土地退化、沙漠侵蚀、地表水干涸、沿海洪水以及作物种植的变化都影响着尼日利亚的粮食安全。目前可获得的数据表明,尼日利亚和世界上大多数地区一样,正在经历气候变化的基本特征。因此,尼日利亚政府/私营部门的伙伴关系应该鼓励不会导致温室气体排放的农业、工业和家庭实践。
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Evidence of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in Nigeria
Change in climate and consequent global warming are posing threats to food security in many developing nations including Nigeria because of the climate-dependent nature of agricultural systems and lack of coping capabilities. The spatiotemporal pattern of temperature and rainfall of Nigeria between 1901 and 2005 (105 years), using temperature and rainfall data to support the concept of regional climate change and its impact on Agriculture and food security was in- vestigated. Also assessed was the level of agriculture funding and output in Nigeria. Mean annual air temperature and rain- fall data between 1901- 2005 (105 years) were obtained from Food and Agricultural Organization publications, National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria bulletin and National Meteorological Agency. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. The results showed that within the period of 105 years, rainfall decreased by 81 mm with increasing temperature of 1.1℃. The unpredictability of rainfall and steadily increasing air temperature were observed from 1971-2005. The total federal budget between 2001 and 2005 averaged 824 billion Naira per year of which very small amount (14.7 billion (1.8%)) went to agricultural sector. The actual spending was 681 billion Naira per year with 11.4 bil- lion Naira for agriculture. Over 25 years, there were low and dramatic walloping of public spending in agriculture relative to large size and importance of agricultural sector in the economy. There is a continuous rise in output from 1987 to 2000 before it dropped in 2001. Land degradation, desert encroachment, drying up of surface waters, coastal inundations, and shift in cultivated crops over time affected the food security in Nigeria. The current available data showed that Nigeria, like most parts of the world is experiencing the basic features of climate change. Therefore, Nigerian government/ private sector partnership should encourage agricultural, industrial and domestic practices which will not contribute to the emission of greenhouse gasses.
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