预测野火引起的径流变化:建模方法的回顾和综合

IF 6.8 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water Pub Date : 2022-05-16 DOI:10.1002/wat2.1599
D. Partington, M. Thyer, M. Shanafield, D. McInerney, S. Westra, H. Maier, C. Simmons, B. Croke, A. Jakeman, H. Gupta, D. Kavetski
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引用次数: 7

摘要

野火引发了多种水文变化,影响了驱动水量和水质的过程。随着野火频率和严重程度的增加,有必要评估其对水文反应的影响。与野火相关的水文变化在三个不同的时间尺度上运行:火灾的直接后果,恢复阶段,以及野火和再生的多个周期的长期变化。不同的主导进程在每个时间尺度上运行。因此,用于预测野火影响的模型需要根据建模目标和野火影响时间尺度明确表示不同的过程。我们总结了现有的数据驱动的、概念的和基于物理的模型,用于评估野火对径流的影响,确定了每种模型类型的主要假设、过程表示、时间尺度和主要局限性。鉴于野火状况和相关水文影响的大量观测和预估变化,基于物理的模式可能会变得越来越重要。这是由于它们有能力模拟多个过程的同时变化,并且它们使用物理和生物原理来支持超越历史记录的外推。然而,基于物理的模型的好处由于其较高的数据需求和较低的计算速度而受到限制。我们认为,预测野火水文影响的进展将通过将这些基于物理的模型与新的计算速度更快的概念模型和降阶模型相结合而实现。目的是结合不同模式类型的优势,克服其弱点,从而能够模拟野火引起的径流变化的关键水资源情景。
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Predicting wildfire induced changes to runoff: A review and synthesis of modeling approaches
Wildfires elicit a diversity of hydrological changes, impacting processes that drive both water quantity and quality. As wildfires increase in frequency and severity, there is a need to assess the implications for the hydrological response. Wildfire‐related hydrological changes operate at three distinct timescales: the immediate fire aftermath, the recovery phase, and long‐term across multiple cycles of wildfire and regrowth. Different dominant processes operate at each timescale. Consequentially, models used to predict wildfire impacts need an explicit representation of different processes, depending on modeling objectives and wildfire impact timescale. We summarize existing data‐driven, conceptual, and physically based models used to assess wildfire impacts on runoff, identifying the dominant assumptions, process representations, timescales, and key limitations of each model type. Given the substantial observed and projected changes to wildfire regimes and associated hydrological impacts, it is likely that physically based models will become increasingly important. This is due to their capacity both to simulate simultaneous changes to multiple processes, and their use of physical and biological principles to support extrapolation beyond the historical record. Yet benefits of physically based models are moderated by their higher data requirements and lower computational speed. We argue that advances in predicting hydrological impacts from wildfire will come through combining these physically based models with new computationally faster conceptual and reduced‐order models. The aim is to combine the strengths and overcome weaknesses of the different model types, enabling simulations of critical water resources scenarios representing wildfire‐induced changes to runoff.
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来源期刊
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water Environmental Science-Ecology
CiteScore
16.60
自引率
3.70%
发文量
56
期刊介绍: The WIREs series is truly unique, blending the best aspects of encyclopedic reference works and review journals into a dynamic online format. These remarkable resources foster a research culture that transcends disciplinary boundaries, all while upholding the utmost scientific and presentation excellence. However, they go beyond traditional publications and are, in essence, ever-evolving databases of the latest cutting-edge reviews.
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