现代和历史地震海啸事件及其全球社会影响的表征

Y. Dilek, Y. Ogawa, Y. Okubo
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引用次数: 4

摘要

地震和海啸是高影响的地质灾害事件,当它们以大震级和强度发生时,可能具有极大的破坏性,尽管它们的原因和潜在位置在很大程度上是可以在板块构造的框架内预测的。其高影响的主要原因包括大量人员伤亡,广大地区的广泛财产损失以及可能位于人口稠密的居民区,全球银行中心,工业工厂和关键设施(核电站,水坝)的城市环境中的重大社会和经济破坏。为了减少这些地质灾害的影响,国家、社会、专业组织和政府需要合作,制定更有效的地震和海啸风险评估、灾害管理计划、提高公众备灾能力的教育和培训方案,以及能力建设、技能和知识转移以及社会复原力建设的战略计划和目标。在发生破坏性地震和海啸的国家,改进建筑设计和建筑规范以及应急准备和疏散计划应成为灾害管理计划的一部分。发展中国家和发达国家沿海走廊沿线人口的迅速增加很可能使这些地质灾害的社会和经济影响在未来呈指数级上升。本书的章节介绍了历史上和现代一些最突出的地震和海啸事件的案例研究,它们的起源和表现,以及各国政府、国际组织和政府间机构在这些事件后实施的风险评估和灾害管理的努力和最有效的做法。介绍了计算概率地震灾害风险、沿地震活动断层和跨地震活动断层圈定相对距离和破坏带以及识别海底海啸和海底滑坡的新方法。各章的结论表明:(1)科学认识地震活动断层的特征至关重要;(2)增强地方(社区)、国家和全球的复原力对于增强社会对地震和海啸事件的准备能力是必要的;(3)所有利益相关者,包括决策者、科学家、地方、州和国家政府、媒体和世界组织(联合国教科文组织、国际地质勘探局、国际地质灾害组织、全球大地测量观测系统、国家减少地震灾害计划)必须共同努力,传播准确和及时的地质灾害信息,制定有效的减少风险立法,并制定现实可行的减灾和管理措施。
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Characterization of modern and historical seismic–tsunamic events and their global–societal impacts
Abstract Earthquakes and tsunamis are high-impact geohazard events that can be extremely destructive when they occur at large magnitudes and intensities, although their causes and potential locations are, for the most part, predictable within the framework of plate tectonics. Amongst the main reasons for their high impact include enormous numbers of casualties, extensive property damage in vast areas and significant social and economic disruption in urban settings where populous residential areas, global banking centres, industrial factories and critical facilities (nuclear power plants, dams) may be located. In order to reduce the impact of these geohazards, nations, societies, professional organizations and governments need to collaborate to prepare more effective seismic and tsunami risk assessments, disaster management plans, educational and training programmes for increased preparedness of the public, and strategic plans and objectives for capacity building, skill and knowledge transfer, and building of societal resilience. Improved building design and construction codes and emergency preparedness and evacuation plans should be part of disaster management plans in countries where destructive earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred. The rapid increases in population along coastal corridors in developing and developed countries is likely to escalate the social and economic impacts of these geohazards exponentially in the future. The chapters in this book present case studies of some of the most salient earthquake and tsunami events in historical and modern times, their origins and manifestations, and efforts and the most effective practices of risk assessment and disaster management implemented by various governments, international organizations and inter-governmental agencies following these events. New methods of computing probabilistic seismic hazard risks, delineating respect distance and damage zones along and across seismically active faults and recognizing tsunamigenic and submarine landslides on the seafloor are introduced. The conclusions presented in the chapters show that: (1) scientific understanding of the characteristics of seismically active faults is paramount; (2) increased local (community), national and global resilience is necessary to empower societal preparedness for earthquake and tsunami events; and, (3) all stakeholders, including policy-makers, scientists, local, state and national governments, media and world organizations (UNESCO, IUGS, GeoHazards International, Global Geodetic Observing System, National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program) must work together to disseminate accurate and timely information on geohazards, to develop effective legislation for risk reduction and to prepare realistic and practical hazard mitigation and management measures.
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