具有前向和后向动态过程的线性理性预期模型的经济合理解

Michael L. Mussa
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引用次数: 2

摘要

利用Dornbusch的价格水平和汇率动态模型的改进版本的变体,证明了具有前向和后向动态过程的线性理性期望模型的唯一非爆炸解存在的形式条件(稳定根数与独立后向过程数相等)并不能保证该解的经济敏感性。即使人们接受将“投机的胡言乱语”排除在此类模型的解决方案之外的通常论点。此外,满足这种理性期望模型(比独立的向后看过程更稳定的根)存在无穷个非爆炸解的形式条件并不能保证任何这些解在经济上是合理的。
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Economically Sensible Solutions for Linear Rational Expectations Models with Forward and Backward Looking Dynamic Processes
Using variants of a modified version of Dornbusch's model of price level and exchange rate dynamics, it is demonstrated that satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of a unigue non-explosive solution of a linear rational expectations model with forward and backward looking dynamic processes (equality of the number of stable roots with the number of independent backward looking processes) does not guarantee the economic sensibility of this solution, even if one accepts the usual arguments for excluding "speculative babbles" from the solutions of such models. Moreover, satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of an infinity of non-explosive solutions for such rational expectations models (more stable roots than independent backward looking processes) does not assure that any of these solutions is economically sensible.
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