{"title":"具有前向和后向动态过程的线性理性预期模型的经济合理解","authors":"Michael L. Mussa","doi":"10.3386/W1398","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Using variants of a modified version of Dornbusch's model of price level and exchange rate dynamics, it is demonstrated that satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of a unigue non-explosive solution of a linear rational expectations model with forward and backward looking dynamic processes (equality of the number of stable roots with the number of independent backward looking processes) does not guarantee the economic sensibility of this solution, even if one accepts the usual arguments for excluding \"speculative babbles\" from the solutions of such models. Moreover, satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of an infinity of non-explosive solutions for such rational expectations models (more stable roots than independent backward looking processes) does not assure that any of these solutions is economically sensible.","PeriodicalId":11754,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1984-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Economically Sensible Solutions for Linear Rational Expectations Models with Forward and Backward Looking Dynamic Processes\",\"authors\":\"Michael L. Mussa\",\"doi\":\"10.3386/W1398\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Using variants of a modified version of Dornbusch's model of price level and exchange rate dynamics, it is demonstrated that satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of a unigue non-explosive solution of a linear rational expectations model with forward and backward looking dynamic processes (equality of the number of stable roots with the number of independent backward looking processes) does not guarantee the economic sensibility of this solution, even if one accepts the usual arguments for excluding \\\"speculative babbles\\\" from the solutions of such models. Moreover, satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of an infinity of non-explosive solutions for such rational expectations models (more stable roots than independent backward looking processes) does not assure that any of these solutions is economically sensible.\",\"PeriodicalId\":11754,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"1984-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3386/W1398\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W1398","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Economically Sensible Solutions for Linear Rational Expectations Models with Forward and Backward Looking Dynamic Processes
Using variants of a modified version of Dornbusch's model of price level and exchange rate dynamics, it is demonstrated that satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of a unigue non-explosive solution of a linear rational expectations model with forward and backward looking dynamic processes (equality of the number of stable roots with the number of independent backward looking processes) does not guarantee the economic sensibility of this solution, even if one accepts the usual arguments for excluding "speculative babbles" from the solutions of such models. Moreover, satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of an infinity of non-explosive solutions for such rational expectations models (more stable roots than independent backward looking processes) does not assure that any of these solutions is economically sensible.