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Economic Hysteresis and its Modeling 经济滞后及其建模
Pub Date : 2021-09-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3932547
I. Mayergoyz, C. Korman
Hysteresis is treated as a history dependent branching, and the use of the classical Preisach model for the analysis of macroeconomic hysteresis is first discussed. Then, a new Preisach-type model is introduced as a macroeconomic aggregation of more realistic microeconomic hysteresis than in the case of the classical Preisach model. It is demonstrated that this model is endowed with a more general mechanism of branching and may account for the continuous evolution of the economy and its effect on hysteresis. Furthermore, it is shown that the sluggishness of economic recovery is an intrinsic manifestation of hysteresis branching.
将滞后视为历史相关的分支,并首先讨论了经典Preisach模型在宏观经济滞后分析中的应用。然后,引入了一种新的Preisach型模型,作为比经典Preisach模型更现实的微观经济滞后的宏观经济汇总。结果表明,该模型具有更一般的分支机制,可以解释经济的持续演化及其对滞后性的影响。进一步表明,经济复苏的迟滞是滞后分支的内在表现。
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引用次数: 0
Credit Horizons 信贷视野
Pub Date : 2021-04-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3734844
N. Kiyotaki, John. Moore, Shengxing Zhang
Entrepreneurs appear to borrow largely against their near-term revenues, even when their investment has a longer horizon. In this paper, we develop a model of credit horizons. A question of particular concern to us is whether persistently low interest rates can stifle economic activity. With this in mind, our model is of a small open economy where the world interest rate is taken to be exogenous. We show that a permanent fall in the interest rate can reduce aggregate investment and growth, and even lead to a drop in the welfare of everyone in the domestic economy. We use our framework to examine how credit horizons interact with plant dynamics and the evolution of productivity. Finally, we speculate that the measurement of total investment may camouflage the true level of productive investment in plant and human capital, and give too rosy a picture of property-fueled booms sparked by low interest rates.
企业家似乎主要是用他们的短期收入来借贷,即使他们的投资有更长远的眼光。在本文中,我们建立了一个信用视界模型。我们特别担心的一个问题是,持续的低利率是否会扼杀经济活动。考虑到这一点,我们的模型是一个小型开放经济体,其中世界利率被认为是外生的。我们的研究表明,利率的持续下降会降低总投资和增长,甚至导致国内经济中每个人的福利下降。我们使用我们的框架来研究信贷视野如何与植物动态和生产力演变相互作用。最后,我们推测,总投资的衡量可能掩盖了工厂和人力资本生产性投资的真实水平,并对低利率引发的房地产推动的繁荣给出了过于乐观的看法。
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引用次数: 1
Estimation of Heuristic Switching in Behavioral Macroeconomic Models 行为宏观经济模型中启发式转换的估计
Pub Date : 2021-03-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3792139
J. Kukacka, Stephen Sacht
This paper offers a simulation-based method for the estimation of heuristic switching in nonlinear macroeconomic models. Heuristic switching is an important feature of modeling strategy since it uses simple decision rules of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents. The simulation study shows that the proposed simulated maximum likelihood method identifies the behavioral effects that stay hidden for standard econometric approaches. In the empirical application, we estimate the structural and behavioral parameters of the US economy. We are especially able to reliably identify the intensity of choice that governs the models’ nonlinear dynamics.
本文提出了一种基于仿真的非线性宏观经济模型启发式切换估计方法。启发式切换是建模策略的一个重要特征,因为它使用了有界理性异构智能体的简单决策规则。仿真研究表明,所提出的模拟最大似然方法识别了标准计量经济学方法所隐藏的行为效应。在实证应用中,我们估计了美国经济的结构和行为参数。我们尤其能够可靠地识别控制模型非线性动力学的选择强度。
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引用次数: 3
Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology (CoCEB) Modeling: A Dynamic Approach 气候-经济-生态(CoCEB)耦合模型:一种动态方法
Pub Date : 2020-09-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3697299
K. B. Ogutu, F. D'Andrea, Andreas Groth, M. Ghil
The when and/or how improved environmental-performance leads to improved macroeconomic-performance under increasing likelihood of global-warming abatement are not well understood. We thus formulate a simple Stochastic Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB-S) model that is qualitatively oriented—it is constructed to account for the main global macroeconomic and climate facts and is designed, in particular, to offer insights toward sustainable climate policy formulation. The paper begins with climate, carbon-cycle, and biosphere modules. A detailed description of stylized long-run macroeconomic facts and the core framework for replicating them, along with an extension to include endogenous technological-change, endogenous population, and energy depletion is added. Climate affects economic activity through damage appearing in the macroeconomic structure. The results show that abatement delivers a win-win solution by ~2050. However, the non-business-as-usual mitigation measures are wrought with high unemployment rates. This paper therefore demonstrates that a sustainable climate policy should be reinforced with appropriate economic measures that restrain the threat for the employment market and the possible high income/wealth disparity.
在全球变暖减缓可能性增加的情况下,环境绩效的改善何时和/或如何导致宏观经济绩效的改善尚不清楚。因此,我们制定了一个简单的以定性为导向的随机耦合气候-经济-生物圈(CoCEB-S)模型,该模型的构建考虑了主要的全球宏观经济和气候事实,并特别设计为可持续气候政策制定提供见解。论文从气候、碳循环和生物圈模块开始。详细描述了程式化的长期宏观经济事实和复制这些事实的核心框架,并扩展到包括内源性技术变革、内源性人口和能源消耗。气候通过宏观经济结构中出现的损害影响经济活动。结果表明,到2050年,减排将带来一个双赢的解决方案。然而,非一切照旧的缓解措施是在高失业率的情况下实施的。因此,本文表明,可持续的气候政策应该通过适当的经济措施来加强,以抑制对就业市场的威胁和可能的高收入/财富差距。
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引用次数: 1
Post Keynesian Economics Is Based on Joan Robinson’s Many Canards About Supposed Gaping Holes in Keynes’s Theory: The Real Problem Is Gaping Holes and Gross Ignorance in the Post Keynesian Understanding of Keynes’s a Treatise on Probability 后凯恩斯主义经济学基于琼·罗宾逊对凯恩斯理论中所谓漏洞的诸多质疑:真正的问题是后凯恩斯主义对凯恩斯《概率论》理解中的漏洞和严重无知
Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3637692
M. E. Brady
There is no Post Keynesian economist or allied philosopher who can comprehend the following, basic 100 year old fact-Keynes, building on Boole ‘s The Laws of Thought (1854), created an interval valued approach to probability, as well as a decision weight approach, the c coefficient, that re-expresses interval valued probability as non additive and non linear probability, that has nothing to do with radical uncertainty or ordinal probability as asserted continuously for 50 years. Consider the example of R. Skidelsky. R. Skidelsky was very much like Joan Robinson in his academic skills, upon whom he has built his view of Keynes’s contributions. R. Skidelsky, like Joan Robinson, has admitted many times that he is mathematically illiterate, inept, and innumerant. This self admitted fact made Skidelsky very susceptible and receptive to the Frank P. Ramsey myth, recently resurrected by C. MIsak (2020). This myth purports that Ramsey, an 18 year old teenager who came to Cambridge University in 1921, was able to convince Keynes in 1922 that his logical theory of probability, as presented in his 1921 A Treatise on Probability, was full of logical, epistemological and philosophical errors that demolished the entire logical foundation and edifice of Keynes’s theory. Of course, given the fact that Keynes’s theory is built directly on a foundation and edifice of George Boole’s mathematical propositional logic and algebra,which Ramsey (nor any other supporter of Ramsey, such as R.B. Braithwaite) dared not challenge at any time in his lifetime, the belief that Keynes, who had used his approach to approximation and inexact measurement in his Indian Currency and Finance and Economic Consequences of the Peace successfully, would accept Ramsey’s purely academic theory based on additivity and linearity, which Keynes knew did not hold at all in the real world of decision making involving missing evidence and vague, conflicting knowledge, is simply silly. Keynes,of course, realized that Ramsey’s great formal, intellectual skills would make him a great academic thinker. The acceptance by all Post Keynesians and heterodox economists, that Keynes capitulated, either in part or wholly, to Ramsey, has led to a complete failure to properly connect the Keynes of the A Treatise on Probability to the Keynes of the General Theory. This is very similar to the failure of Adam Smith academics to properly connect the Smith of The Theory of Moral Sentiments to the Smith of The Wealth of Nations. Both Keynes’s and Smith’s are, of course, identical in both books. The Ramsey myth has been continually promulgated since 1921. Misak’s 2020 book on Ramsey continues to make assertions about Keynes which are directly contradicted by Keynes himself. The best exposition that explodes the Ramsey myth is the Keynes-Townshend correspondence over the TP of 1937-38, where non numerical probability, weight of the evidence, and the logical theory of probability, and the relation to the GT ar
没有一个后凯恩斯主义的经济学家或联合哲学家能够理解下面这个100年前的基本事实——凯恩斯在布尔的《思想法则》(1854)的基础上,创造了一种区间值概率方法,以及一种决策权重方法,即c系数,它将区间值概率重新表达为非加性和非线性概率,与连续50年断言的根本不确定性或有序概率无关。考虑R. Skidelsky的例子。斯基德尔斯基在学术技能上与琼·罗宾逊非常相似,他对凯恩斯贡献的看法建立在琼·罗宾逊的基础之上。斯基德尔斯基和琼·罗宾逊一样,多次承认自己不懂数学、不懂数学、不懂数学。这一自我承认的事实使斯基德尔斯基非常容易受到弗兰克·p·拉姆齐神话的影响,最近由c·米萨克(2020)复活。这个神话声称,1921年来到剑桥大学的18岁少年拉姆齐在1922年说服了凯恩斯,他在1921年发表的《概率论》中提出的逻辑概率论充满了逻辑、认识论和哲学上的错误,这些错误摧毁了凯恩斯理论的整个逻辑基础和大厦。当然,考虑到凯恩斯的理论直接建立在乔治·布尔的数学命题逻辑和代数的基础和建筑上,而拉姆齐(也没有拉姆齐的任何其他支持者,如R.B.布雷斯韦特)在他的一生中都不敢挑战,凯恩斯在他的印度货币、金融和和平的经济后果中成功地使用了他的近似和不精确测量方法,凯恩斯知道,拉姆齐基于可加性和线性的纯学术理论在现实世界的决策中根本站不住脚,因为现实世界中存在缺乏证据和模糊、相互矛盾的知识。当然,凯恩斯意识到,拉姆齐出色的形式和智力技能将使他成为一名伟大的学术思想家。所有后凯恩斯主义者和非正统经济学家都接受凯恩斯部分或全部向拉姆齐投降,这导致了将《概率论》中的凯恩斯与《通论》中的凯恩斯正确地联系起来的彻底失败。这与亚当·斯密学者未能正确地将斯密的《道德情操论》与斯密的《国富论》联系起来非常相似。当然,凯恩斯和斯密的观点在两本书中都是相同的。自1921年以来,拉姆齐的神话一直被不断地传播。米萨克2020年关于拉姆齐的书继续对凯恩斯做出断言,而这些断言与凯恩斯本人直接相矛盾。粉碎拉姆齐神话的最佳阐释是凯恩斯-汤森在1937-38年TP上的通信,其中涵盖了非数值概率、证据的权重、概率的逻辑理论以及与GT的关系。书中没有提到弗兰克·拉姆齐(Frank Ramsey),也没有提到凯恩斯(Keynes)或汤森(Townshend)的主观概率论。弗兰克·拉姆齐的消除神话是一个必要的步骤,可以取得任何进展之前必须采取理解之间的联系TP和GT。从1986年的哈恩和斯沃尔什2001年Togati早在2020年,我们可以看到,真正的问题不在于任何差距在凯恩斯的理论中,但失明后凯恩斯主义和正统经济学家对于TP和GT,要么是无法或不愿读TP和/或20章,GT的21 19章和附录。
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引用次数: 0
Karl Mittermaier and the Hands of Classical Liberalism 卡尔·密特迈尔和古典自由主义之手
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12403
D. Klein
Karl Mittermaier (1938–2016) completed a work in 1987 titled The Hand Behind the Invisible Hand: Dogmatic and Pragmatic Views on Free Markets and the State of Economic Theory, published for the first time in 2020. Here I treat Mittermaier's rich meditation, which I interpret as a pursuit of greater coherence in classical liberal thought. Mittermaier emphasises the moral, cultural, and institutional preconditions of a liberal market order, and argues that some of the preconditions depend on people feeling that they have reason to embrace such classical liberal principles. The preconditions, then, depend in part on the perception of coherence and appeal of the liberal order.
卡尔·米特迈尔(Karl Mittermaier, 1938–2016)于1987年完成了一部名为《看不见的手背后的手:关于自由市场和经济理论状态的教条主义和实用主义观点》的作品,于2020年首次出版。在这里,我将讨论密特迈尔丰富的沉思,我将其解释为对古典自由主义思想更大连贯性的追求。密特迈尔强调自由市场秩序的道德、文化和制度先决条件,并认为其中一些先决条件取决于人们认为他们有理由接受这些经典的自由主义原则。因此,这些先决条件在一定程度上取决于对自由秩序的连贯性和吸引力的看法。
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引用次数: 0
Block Versions of R functions in 'generalCorr' for Generalized Correlations and Causal Paths 用于广义相关和因果路径的'generalCorr'中R函数的块版本
Pub Date : 2019-11-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3478318
H. Vinod
Karl Pearson developed the correlation coefficient r(X,Y) in 1890s vastly underestimates dependence between two series. Vinod(2014} develops new generalized correlation coefficients so that when r*(Y|X) > r*(X|Y) then X is the "kernel cause'' of Y. Vinod (2015) reports simulations favoring kernel causality. An R software package called 'generalCorr' (at r-project.org) computes generalized correlations, partial correlations, and plausible causal paths. This short paper describes the block versions of various R functions newly added to the 'generalCorr' package in October 2019. Newly published Vinod (2019) has the latest rendering of the theory behind causal paths including theorems with proofs. The function 'causeSummBlk(.)' is recommended for practitioners.
卡尔·皮尔森在19世纪90年代提出的相关系数r(X,Y)大大低估了两个序列之间的相关性。Vinod(2014)提出了新的广义相关系数,当r*(Y|X) >r*(X|Y)则X是Y的“核心原因”。Vinod(2015)报告了支持核心因果关系的模拟。一个名为“generalCorr”的R软件包(网址:R -project.org)可以计算广义相关性、部分相关性和可能的因果路径。这篇短文描述了2019年10月新添加到“generalCorr”包中的各种R函数的块版本。新出版的《维诺德》(2019)对因果路径背后的理论进行了最新的渲染,包括有证明的定理。建议从业者使用'causeSummBlk(.)'函数。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Robustness 估计的鲁棒性
Pub Date : 2019-09-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2955235
Bálint Szoke
I estimate and evaluate a model with a representative agent who is concerned that the persistence properties of her baseline model of consumption and inflation are misspecified. Coping with model uncertainty, she discovers a pessimistically biased worst-case model that dictates her behavior. I combine interest rates and aggregate macro series with cross-equation restrictions implied by robust control theory to estimate this worst-case distribution and show that (1) the model’s predictions about key features of the yield curve are in line with the data, and (2) the degree of pessimism underlying these findings is plausible. Interpreting the worst-case as the agent’s subjective belief, I derive model implied interest rate forecasts and compare them with analogous survey expectations. I find that the model can replicate the average bias found in the survey.
我估计和评估一个具有代表性代理的模型,该代理担心她的消费和通货膨胀基线模型的持久性属性是错误指定的。为了应对模型的不确定性,她发现了一个带有悲观偏见的最坏情况模型,它决定了她的行为。我将利率和总体宏观序列与鲁棒控制理论隐含的交叉方程限制结合起来,以估计这种最坏情况的分布,并表明(1)模型对收益率曲线关键特征的预测与数据一致,(2)这些发现背后的悲观程度是合理的。我将最坏情况解释为代理人的主观信念,推导出模型隐含利率预测,并将其与类似的调查预期进行比较。我发现这个模型可以复制调查中发现的平均偏差。
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引用次数: 13
The Political Economy of ‘Ordered Competition’ in European Telecoms 欧洲电信业“有序竞争”的政治经济学
Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12349
Dmitrii Trubnikov, E. Trubnikova
This article discusses the current efforts of policymakers to spur development of telecommunications infrastructure. It argues that the policy of ‘ordered competition’, widely implemented in this sector, has formed a highly beneficial environment for major players, who have the ability to influence the regulatory machine. The system protects the status quo, impedes the efficiency of the market process and allows unnecessary public subsidy of the industry's development. The main alternative to this regulatory regime is structural reform of the industry and the formation of a genuinely competitive marketplace which could function without ex ante regulation.
本文讨论了当前政策制定者为促进电信基础设施发展所做的努力。它认为,在该部门广泛实施的"有序竞争"政策为有能力影响监管机器的主要参与者形成了非常有利的环境。该制度保护现状,阻碍市场过程的效率,并允许对行业发展进行不必要的公共补贴。这种管制制度的主要替代方案是对该行业进行结构性改革,并形成一个真正具有竞争力的市场,使其能够在没有事前管制的情况下发挥作用。
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引用次数: 2
Logarithmic Depreciation 对数折旧
Pub Date : 2019-05-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3022609
Evan W. Anderson, W. Brock
This paper studies logarithmic depreciation which is similar to conventional geometric depreciation, except that capital and investment are replaced by their logarithms. We provide empirical and theoretical evidence that logarithmic depreciation can account for capital depreciation better than geometric depreciation and about as well as a more general method that has an additional parameter. We document that consumption and investment decisions in the United States and other countries appear to be made under the erroneous assumption that capital approximately depreciates geometrically and the welfare losses from doing so are large.
本文研究的对数折旧与传统的几何折旧类似,只是将资本和投资用其对数代替。我们提供了经验和理论证据,证明对数折旧可以比几何折旧更好地解释资本折旧,并且大约是具有附加参数的更一般的方法。我们证明,美国和其他国家的消费和投资决策似乎是在错误的假设下做出的,即资本大致呈几何级数贬值,这样做造成的福利损失很大。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models (Topic)
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