全中国日降水记录的趋势波动分析

Choujun Zhan, Weiwen Cao, Junyu Fan, Chen-Mao Wu, Zhi Yang, Mingbo Zhao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在我们的分析中,我们考虑了覆盖整个中国的3825个地区的日降雨量记录y(n)。1961年至2011年的日降雨量记录长达50年。本文研究了超过某个阈值q的两个连续降雨记录之间的日降雨数据和返回间隔Tq的统计特性。利用去趋势波动分析(DFA)方法分析了降雨记录y(n)与返回间隔Tq的长期相关性特性,发现降雨记录不存在长期相关性,而返回间隔存在弱的长期相关性,表明降雨动态的随机调节。在此基础上,进一步分析了3825个地区降水记录和降水回归区间的概率分布函数(PDF),发现其均服从幂律分布。
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Detrended fluctuation analysis of daily rainfall records of the entire China
In our analysis, we consider daily rainfall records y(n) from 3825 areas covering entire China. The daily rainfall records is 50 years long from 1961 to 2011. We study the statistical properties of the daily rainfall data and return intervals Tq between two consecutive rainfall records above some threshold q. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to analyze the long-term correlation properties of the rainfall record y(n) and return intervals Tq, we find that the long-term correlation is not exist in rainfall record, while a weak long-term correlation is found in return intervals, pointing to a random regulation of rainfall dynamics. Then, we further analyze the probability distribution function (PDF) of the rainfall record and return intervals of all the 3825 areas, and find that all the PDF obey a power-law distribution.
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