基于运动的交叉口碰撞频率建模

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2022.2092571
Taehun Lee, C. Cunningham, N. Rouphail
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引用次数: 1

摘要

传统的碰撞频率模型无法估计交叉口单个交通运动的碰撞频率,妨碍了个体运动的安全性评价和危险运动的识别。本文提出了一种基于运动的(MB)模型,该模型既可以估计单个运动的碰撞频率,也可以估计整个交叉口的碰撞频率。利用公路安全手册中的安全性能函数表建立了一个基本模型,并与MB模型进行了比较。本研究使用在北卡罗莱纳州41个信号交叉口收集的5至8年的碰撞事故进行模型估计和验证(21个交叉口用于估计,20个交叉口用于验证)。使用累积残差图、测试集验证和案例研究对模型进行了验证。测试集验证表明,与基本模型相比,MB模型的估计结果略有改善(平均绝对误差降低1.17% ~ 5.83%,均方根误差降低3.32% ~ 6.64%)。案例研究表明,基于观察到的和估计的碰撞频率,MB模型正确地识别出具有明显安全问题的危险交通运动。MB模型将使工程师能够识别危险的运动和方法,以便在适当的位置和运动中实施安全改进对策。
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Movement-based intersection crash frequency modeling
Abstract Traditional crash frequency models cannot estimate crash frequency for individual traffic movements at an intersection, which precludes the safety evaluation of individual movements and identification of hazardous ones. This paper proposes a movement-based (MB) model that estimates crash frequency for individual movements as well as for the entire intersection. A base model using the safety performance function form in the Highway Safety Manual was also developed for comparison against the MB model. This study used crashes collected for five to eight years at 41 signalized intersections in North Carolina for the model estimation and validation (21 intersections for the estimation and 20 intersections for the validation). The models were validated using cumulative residual plots, test set validation, and in a case study. The test set validation showed that the MB model yielded slight improvements in estimations compared to the base model (1.17%−5.83% reductions in mean absolute error and 3.32%−6.64% reductions in root-mean-square error). The case study showed the MB model correctly identified hazardous traffic movements that had demonstrable safety problems based on observed and estimated crash frequencies. The MB model will enable engineers to identify hazardous movements and approaches to implement safety improvement countermeasures at the deserving locations and movements.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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