{"title":"如何(不)预测未来?捷克政治安全情境建构领域若干开创性研究分析","authors":"Miroslav Kalous","doi":"10.3849/1802-7199.18.2018.01.131-146","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Predictive analysis is rare in the field of Czech security studies. For this reason, scenarios of world politics by Institute of International Relations (IIR) (2012-2017) as well as predictions by the think-tank European values (2016) constitute pioneering works worthy of attention. The article analyses these scenarios, focusing on their methodological aspects. The articles concludes by noting that IIR's scenarios are a welcome contribution to the field but the same cannot be said about scenarios of European values.","PeriodicalId":40204,"journal":{"name":"Obrana a Strategie-Defence & Strategy","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.3000,"publicationDate":"2018-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of Several Pioneering Studies in the Field of Czech Political and Security Scenario-Building\",\"authors\":\"Miroslav Kalous\",\"doi\":\"10.3849/1802-7199.18.2018.01.131-146\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Predictive analysis is rare in the field of Czech security studies. For this reason, scenarios of world politics by Institute of International Relations (IIR) (2012-2017) as well as predictions by the think-tank European values (2016) constitute pioneering works worthy of attention. The article analyses these scenarios, focusing on their methodological aspects. The articles concludes by noting that IIR's scenarios are a welcome contribution to the field but the same cannot be said about scenarios of European values.\",\"PeriodicalId\":40204,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Obrana a Strategie-Defence & Strategy\",\"volume\":\"27 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-07-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Obrana a Strategie-Defence & Strategy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3849/1802-7199.18.2018.01.131-146\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Obrana a Strategie-Defence & Strategy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3849/1802-7199.18.2018.01.131-146","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
How (Not) to Predict the Future? Analysis of Several Pioneering Studies in the Field of Czech Political and Security Scenario-Building
Predictive analysis is rare in the field of Czech security studies. For this reason, scenarios of world politics by Institute of International Relations (IIR) (2012-2017) as well as predictions by the think-tank European values (2016) constitute pioneering works worthy of attention. The article analyses these scenarios, focusing on their methodological aspects. The articles concludes by noting that IIR's scenarios are a welcome contribution to the field but the same cannot be said about scenarios of European values.
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