A new prediction method for reliability analysis of ocean sustainable energy systems

With the motivation to overcome the shortcomings of the traditional approaches, in this paper, we have proposed to utilize an exponentiated Weibull distribution for fitting the significant wave height data in order to more accurately calculate the sea state parameter distribution tails and to extrapolate well. Our proposal has been applied in predicting the probability distribution tails of a measured ocean wave dataset, and its accuracy has been clearly demonstrated. This proposal has subsequently been utilized in combination with Monte Carlo sampling to form a new environmental contour method for deriving a 50-year contour line based on the aforementioned measured ocean wave dataset. The derived environmental contour line has been compared with that predicted by using a traditional contour line approach, and the engineering significances of using a more reliable environmental contour line such as the one derived using our proposed new method for predicting the long-term design force values for an ocean sustainable energy system have been highlighted. In conclusion, our proposed new environmental contour method is recommended to be utilized for predicting the extreme dynamic response values for the safe and successful design of ocean sustainable energy systems.