乌克兰对外经济战略重点

IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS EGE ACADEMIC REVIEW Pub Date : 2023-07-18 DOI:10.32342/2074-5354-2023-2-59-17
A. Filipenko, O. Bazhenova, Lina S. Polishchuk, Nataliya M. Rylach
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文致力于分析乌克兰的现代对外经济战略重点,在该国经济发展的主要目的背景下其实施的特点。强调需要在制定乌克兰新的出口战略的背景下使用现代工具来支持国内生产者和限制进口扩大。乌克兰是一个小型的开放经济体,广泛利用经济发展的外部因素,既包括其产品市场,特别是农业部门,也包括吸引重要的进口资源,包括石油和天然气、电子设备等。从这一观点出发,分析揭示了世界市场上的两个关键角色- -美国和中国- -在确保乌克兰的外部经济平衡方面的作用和重要性。本文实证研究了乌克兰的某些宏观经济指标对美国和中国(乌克兰所谓的“大型”和系统重要性经济体)类似指标的依赖。向量自回归模型作为一种研究工具,用于探索宏观经济指标之间的动态相互依赖关系,在用前一个指标解释其现值的情况下。为此,选择了美国、中国和乌克兰的国内生产总值和消费者价格指数与上年同期相比的百分比变化。研究的结果是,来自“大型”经济体的脉冲反应函数表明,在这些国家的经济增长和来自国外的通货膨胀进口的背景下,乌克兰经济发展的特征指标依赖于这些经济体,并长期吸收这些经济体。此外,应该指出的是,中国的影响比美国更重要,特别是如果我们考虑到中国消费者价格指数的波动对乌克兰经济增长和通货膨胀的影响。这就需要对这一问题进行进一步的研究,以形成科学合理的乌克兰对外经济战略和政策。美国和中国的经济增长对乌克兰国内生产总值波动的影响是积极的,而且几乎相同(在第二季度达到峰值,在两年内逐渐趋于平稳)。反过来,乌克兰GDP预测误差的方差分解表明,从长远来看,大约52%的可变性来自建模的外部因素,我们认为这是由于乌克兰经济的显着开放,因此是“大型”经济体。最后,论文强调需要对其国际经济政策进行评估,以最大限度地降低国家对外经济战略实施中的风险。
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FOREIGN ECONOMIC STRATEGIC PRIORITIES OF UKRAINE
The paper is devoted to the analysis of modern foreign economic strategic priorities of Ukraine, features of their implementation in the context of the key purposes of economic development of the country. Emphasis is placed on the need to use modern tools to support domestic producers and limit import expansion in the context of the formation of a new export strategy of Ukraine. Ukraine is a small open economy that makes extensive use of external factors of economic development both in the context of markets for its products, especially the agricultural sector, and attracting important resources of critical imports, including oil and natural gas, electronic equipment and more. From this point of view, the analysis has revealed the role and importance of two key players in the world market – the United States and China – in ensuring Ukraine’s external economic balance. The paper empirically examines the dependence of certain macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine on similar indicators of the United States and China (the so-called ‘large’ and systemically important economies for Ukraine). Vector autoregression models were used as a research tool to explore the dynamic interdependencies between macroeconomic indicators in the case of explaining their present values by the previous ones. For this purpose, percentage changes in gross domestic product and consumer price index compared to the corresponding period of the previous year for the USA, China and Ukraine were selected. As a result of the research, impulse-response functions from ‘large’ economies showed the dependence of indicators that characterise economic development in Ukraine from them and their long-term absorption, both in the context of economic growth in these countries and inflation imports from abroad. Moreover, it should be noted that the influence of China is more significant than that of the United States, especially if we consider the impact of fluctuations in the consumer price index in China on economic growth and inflation in Ukraine. This necessitates further research on this issue in line with the formation of scientifically sound foreign economic strategy and policy of Ukraine. The impact of economic growth in the United States and China on Ukraine’s GDP fluctuations is positive and almost the same (peaking in the second quarter and gradual levelling over two years). In turn, the variance decomposition of forecast errors for Ukraine’s GDP shows that in the long run about 52% of its variability result from modelled external factors, which in our opinion is due to significant openness of Ukraine’s economy and, consequently, ‘large’ economies. Finally, paper emphasizes the need to assess their international economic policy to minimize risks in the implementation of the country’s foreign economic strategy.
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EGE ACADEMIC REVIEW
EGE ACADEMIC REVIEW ECONOMICS-
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