南非储备银行的通讯

Arnold Segawa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2000年,南非中央银行南非储备银行(SARB)采用灵活的通货膨胀目标制作为货币制度,并在此过程中,将总体消费者价格指数的通货膨胀目标设定为3-6% (Coco & Viegi, 2020)。实现这一通胀目标的关键,不仅是对事后政策行动的清晰沟通,而且是对SARB未来行动的清晰传播。本文研究了SARB是如何沟通的,特别强调了其货币政策委员会(MPC)在2000年1月至2021年1月之间的新闻声明。样本空间的宽度是由探索SARB沟通策略变化的必要性决定的。特别是,本研究考虑了SARB的货币政策委员会新闻稿的作用,并考虑到样本的广泛范围,它提供了一个关于21年期间发生了什么变化的调查,从而考虑SARB在这段时间内的沟通是否更加清晰。这个问题是用Flesch和Flesch - kincaid方法来回答的,这两种方法在央行沟通文献中被广泛接受。这两种方法衡量英语文章的理解难度,因此用于评估可读性和清晰度。在评估央行的沟通和调查数据时,本文提供了关于20年来SARB货币政策委员会会议声明清晰度的经验证据,并清楚地展示了其演变。本研究发现,SARB通讯的Flesch Reading Ease Score Computation远高于Flesch - kincaid Grade Level Computation,且波动幅度更大,在2000 - 2015年间呈现随机波动。因此,尽管SARB的MPC声明显示出更多的可读性,但它们对学术词汇的依赖使它们更加复杂和难以理解。
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Communication by the South African Reserve Bank
In 2000, South Africa’s central bank, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), adopted flexible inflation targeting as a monetary regime, and in doing so, set its inflation target at 3-6% for the headline consumer price index (Coco & Viegi, 2020). Essential to achieving this inflation target is not only clear communication of ex-post policy actions, but a clear dissemination of the SARB’s future actions.This paper examines how the SARB has been communicating, with particular emphasis on their Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) press statements between January 2000 and January 2021. The breadth of the sample space is informed by a necessity to explore changes in the SARB’s communication strategies. In particular, this study considers the role of the SARB’s MPC press releases, and given the wide span of the sample, it offers an inquiry into what has changed over the 21-year period, hence considering whether there has been more clarity in the SARB’s communication over that time. This question is answered using the Flesch and Flesch–Kincaid methods, which are widely accepted in central bank communication literature. The two methods gauge how difficult a passage in English is to understand, and are thus used to assess readability hence clarity. In evaluating central bank communications and upon surveying the data, the paper offers empirical evidence about the clarity of the SARB’s MPC meeting statements spanning over two decades, and clearly exhibiting its evolution. This study finds that SARB communications’ Flesch Reading Ease Score Computation is way above and fluctuates more than the Flesch–Kincaid Grade Level Computation, exhibiting a random fluctuation between 2000 and 2015. Therefore, despite SARB’s MPC statements exhibiting more readability, their reliance on academic words has made them more complex and difficult to understand.
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