基于优化LSTM算法的生猪养殖业生产效率预测

Sci. Program. Pub Date : 2021-12-26 DOI:10.1155/2021/3074167
Yunfei Jia, Zhaohui Zhang, Zejun He, Panpan Zhu, Yibei Zhang, Tianhua Sun
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引用次数: 4

摘要

本研究旨在提高生猪养殖业在环境调控下的经济收入,控制生猪养殖对环境的污染。提出了长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络与环境调控相结合的生猪价格预测方法,以降低环境污染治理成本,提高生猪养殖生产效率。首先对中国生猪产业结构和污染进行了分析,研究了生猪规模化集约化养殖的必然性。然后,在环境监管下协调生猪养殖和环境污染。从绿色全要素生产率的角度,计算生猪养殖利润和环境污染治理成本。其次,利用LSTM神经网络对生猪价格进行预测,有效控制生猪养殖规模,及时做出符合市场规律的决策。结果表明,随着饲料和土地价格的上涨,生猪规模化养殖的优势逐渐凸显,导致中小养殖户退出市场。与其他同类模型相比,所设计的模型能较好地模拟生猪价格未来走势,预测准确率达80%以上。结合环境法规,模型对不同数据集的预测准确率达到83%,因此所设计的模型可以更好地预测生猪价格的变化趋势,从而提高规模化养猪户的生产效率。
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Production Efficiency Prediction of Pig Breeding Industry by Optimized LSTM Computer Algorithm under Environmental Regulation
The study aims to improve the economic income of pig breeding industry under environmental regulation and control the environmental pollution caused by pig breeding. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network combined with environmental regulation is proposed to forecast the price of live pigs, to reduce the cost of environmental pollution control and improve the production efficiency of pig breeding. Primarily, analyses are made on the industrial structure and pollution of pigs in China, and studies are carried out on the inevitability of large-scale and intensive pig breeding. Then, pig breeding and environmental pollution are coordinated under the environmental regulation. From the perspective of green total factor productivity, calculation is made on the profit of pig breeding and the cost of environmental pollution control. Next, the LSTM neural network is used to predict the price of live pigs, thus effectively controlling the scale of pig breeding and making timely decisions that conform to market rules. The results show that with the increase of feed and land prices, the advantages of large-scale pig breeding gradually become prominent, which leads to the small- and medium-sized scale farmers withdrawing from the market. Compared with other similar models, the designed model can better simulate the future trend of hog price, of which the prediction accuracy is over 80%. When combined with environmental regulations, the prediction accuracy of the model for different data sets reaches 83%, so the designed model can better predict the changing trend of the price of live pigs, thus improving the production efficiency of large-scale pig farmers.
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