飓风灾害对炼油厂停产时间和恢复力影响预测模型的开发与应用

Kendall M. Capshaw, J. Padgett
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引用次数: 0

摘要

美国墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂占全国炼油总产能的一半以上。然而,在该地区提炼的产品中,只有不到三分之一用于供应当地市场。由于美国石油分销网络的高度集中,影响墨西哥湾沿岸炼油厂的中断可能会产生广泛的影响。本研究的目的是为飓风灾害下炼油厂关闭的可能性和预期持续时间建立一个充分的预测模型。此类模型目前在文献中缺乏,但对于炼油厂关闭的级联后果的风险建模至关重要,从石油网络的弹性分析到与启动和关闭活动相关的对周围社区的潜在健康影响。建立了炼油厂停机和风暴灾害的经验数据库,并进行了统计分析,以探索炼油厂与风暴特征和停机时间之间的关系。预测精度最高的方法是由与炼油厂停工潜力相关的逻辑回归二元分类组件和与停机时间确定相关的泊松分布广义线性模型组件组成的模型。为了说明新开发模型的实用性,进行了一个案例研究,探讨了两个风暴对休斯顿航道及其周边地区的影响。对区域炼油弹性和配电网弹性进行了量化,包括不确定性传播。这些分析揭示了当地社区对炼油中断的全国性影响,并可以支持增强弹性的决策。
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Development and Application of a Predictive Model for Estimating Refinery Shutdown Duration and Resilience Impacts Due to Hurricane Hazards
U.S. Gulf Coast refineries account for over half of the total refining capacity of the nation. However, less than a third of products refined in this region are used to supply local markets. Due to the highly centralized nature of the U.S. petroleum distribution network, disruptions affecting Gulf Coast refineries can have widespread impacts. The objective of this study is to develop a sufficient predictive model for the likelihood and expected duration of refinery shutdowns under hurricane hazards. Such models are currently lacking in the literature yet essential for risk modeling of the cascading consequences of refinery shutdown ranging from resilience analyses of petroleum networks to potential health effects on surrounding communities tied to startup and shutdown activities. A database of empirical refinery downtime and storm hazards data is developed, and statistical analyses are conducted to explore the relationship between refinery and storm characteristics and shutdown duration. The proposed method with the highest predictive accuracy is found to be a model comprised of a logistic regression binary classification component related to refinery shutdown potential and a Poisson distribution generalized linear model component related to downtime duration determination. To illustrate the utility of the newly developed model, a case study is conducted exploring the impact of two storms affecting the Houston Ship Channel and surrounding region. Both the regional refining resilience as well as the distribution network resilience are quantified, including uncertainty propagation. Such analyses reveal local community to nationwide impacts of refining disruptions and can support resilience enhancement decisions.
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CiteScore
5.20
自引率
13.60%
发文量
34
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