基于智能体的创新扩散模型能够准确地模拟创新扩散过程

François Ledoyen, R. Thomopoulos, S. Couture, L. Sadou, P. Taillandier
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引用次数: 1

摘要

一种特别适合于研究创新的采用和扩散的动态的方法是基于主体的模拟。它允许建模者考虑参与者之间复杂的相互作用以及他们的异质性。许多研究已经表明了这种方法对研究创新扩散过程的兴趣。然而,这些作品中的绝大多数都局限于对这一过程的抽象和简化的表现。这种非常抽象的表示不允许用户理解和解释代理人改变意见的原因,而这对于理解创新扩散的动态是至关重要的。为了克服这一限制,我们提出了一个基于主体的创新采用和扩散模型,该模型使用结构化的论证框架。该模型被用于研究卢茨河(法国西南部)农民对通讯水表的传播,并表明引入新的论点可能会影响采用过程。
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An agent-based model representing the exchanges of arguments to accurately simulate the process of innovation diffusion
An approach that is particularly well adapted to study the dynamics of adoption and diffusion of innovations is agent-based simulation. It allows modelers to take into account the complex interactions between actors as well as their heterogeneity. Numerous works have already shown the interest of this method for the study of innovation diffusion processes. However, the vast majority of these works have been limited to an abstract and simplified representation of this process. This very abstract representation does not allow users to understand and explain the reasons for the change of opinion of an agent, which is nevertheless fundamental to understanding the dynamics of innovation diffusion. In order to overcome this limitation, we propose an agent-based model of adoption and diffusion of innovations that uses a structured argumentation framework. An application of this model is proposed to study the diffusion of communicating water meters by farmers on the Louts river (South-West of France) and shows that the introduction of new arguments could impact the adoption process.
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