Extension of the general unit hydrograph theory for the spread of salinity in estuaries

Abstract. From both practical and theoretical perspectives, it is essential to be able to express observed salinity distributions in terms of simplified theoretical models, which enable qualitative assessments to be made in many problems concerning water resource utilization (such as intake of fresh water) in estuaries. In this study, we propose a general and analytical salt intrusion model inspired by Guo's general unit hydrograph theory for flood hydrograph prediction in a watershed. To derive a simple, general and analytical model of salinity distribution, we first make four hypotheses on the longitudinal salinity gradient based on empirical observations; we then derive a general unit hydrograph for the salinity distribution along a partially mixed or well-mixed estuary. The newly developed model can be well calibrated using a minimum of three salinity measurements along the estuary axis and does converge towards zero when the along-estuary distance approaches infinity asymptotically. The theory has been successfully applied to reproduce the salt intrusion in 21 estuaries worldwide, which suggests that the proposed method can be a useful tool for quickly assessing the spread of salinity under a wide range of riverine and tidal conditions and for quantifying the potential impacts of human-induced and natural changes.