Spatially resolved generation profiles for building, land and water-bound PV: a case study of four Dutch energy transition scenarios

Abstract. Alongside a transition from steerable and centralized traditional electricity generation to intermittent and more decentralized renewable electricity generation from solar panels and wind turbines, Dutch energy transition scenarios project a widespread deployment of heat pumps and electric vehicles towards 2050. While clearly contributing to the decarbonization of the Dutch energy system, these developments impose challenges regarding electricity supply-demand mismatch and grid congestion. Spatially resolved electricity demand and supply profiles are required to gain a better insight into where and when such problems are likely to occur within the different scenarios. The present paper focuses on Dutch solar energy supply and features the construction of geodatabases of scenario-specific, spatially resolved electricity generation profiles for building, land and water-bound PV. Country-level PV capacities are geographically distributed based on spatial variance in roof PV potential and availability of suitable land and water use areas. Corresponding electricity generation profiles are constructed using historical meteorological measurements, a diffuse fraction model and a anisotropic transposition model. Empirically found performance ratio profiles are applied to account for a multitude of performance loss factors, including shading, dust and inverter efficiency. In 2050, building-bound capacity is projected to show only limited overlap with both land-bound and water-bound PV capacity. On the other hand, regions with considerable water-bound PV capacity also tend to show considerable land-bound PV capacity. Compared to the present-day situation, yearly country-level PV electricity generation is projected to be a factor 18.5, 15.7, or 7.7 higher in 2050 when respectively following the Regional, National or International Steering scenarios.