Natalia Pilguj, Leszek Kolendowicz, M. Kryza, K. Migała, B. Czernecki
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引用次数: 7
摘要
本文介绍了1986-2015年斯瓦尔巴群岛(Bjørnøya, Hopen和Ny-Ålesund)选定站点的风速和风向指数的变化趋势,以及NCEP/NCAR和ERA-Interim再分析。分析的风指数包括日数(年或季)和风速或风向的日变化范围。使用Mann-Kendall趋势检验,我们寻找这些指数的时间趋势,比较测量数据集和网格数据集的结果,然后分析这些趋势的空间变异性。风速极低日(≤2 m s - 1)和强风日(>10 m s - 1)的频率均有显著的减少趋势。从再分析数据来看,风速在5 m s−1以下的指数呈下降趋势,风速在5 m s−1以上的指数呈上升趋势。Ny-Ålesund站的风向指数表现出不同的趋势,局地因素改变了气团平流的主导方向。这一趋势在给定区域的空间上有所不同。再分析数据显示,格陵兰海和北冰洋出现北风的趋势最大,这一点无法通过测量得到证实(没有可用的台站)。风速和风向指数的变化趋势可以部分地用环流型频率的变化来解释。
Temporal changes in wind conditions at Svalbard for the years 1986–2015
ABSTRACT This paper presents trends in wind speed and wind direction indices at selected stations in Svalbard (Bjørnøya, Hopen and Ny-Ålesund) and in the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim reanalysis for the period 1986–2015. The analysed wind indices include the sum of days (annual or seasonal) with the daily range wind speed or wind direction. Using the Mann-Kendall trend test, we look for temporal trends in these indices, compare the results for the measured and gridded datasets, and then analyse the spatial variability in those trends. For the stations, statistically significant decreasing trends are detected for the frequency of days with very low wind speed (≤2 m s−1) and for days with strong wind (>10 m s−1). From the reanalysis data, indices with wind speed of up to 5 m s−1 were characterized by decreasing trends, while indices with wind speed above the mentioned threshold show increasing trends. Wind direction indices are characterized by different tendencies in the Ny-Ålesund station, where local elements modify the dominant directions of the air mass advection. The trends vary in space for the given region. Reanalysis data show the biggest positive trend for the occurrence of northerly winds over the Greenland Sea and Arctic Ocean, which cannot be confirmed by measurements (no stations available). The trends in wind speed and direction indices may partly be explained by changes in the frequency of circulation patterns.
期刊介绍:
Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography publishes original research in the field of Physical Geography with special emphasis on cold regions/high latitude, high altitude processes, landforms and environmental change, past, present and future.
The journal primarily promotes dissemination of regular research by publishing research-based articles. The journal also publishes thematic issues where collections of articles around a specific themes are gathered. Such themes are determined by the Editors upon request. Finally the journal wishes to promote knowledge and understanding of topics in Physical Geography, their origin, development and current standing through invited review articles.