Tiia-Maria Pasanen, Miikka Voutilainen, Jouni Helske, Harri Högmander
{"title":"19世纪60年代芬兰饥荒期间市场的贝叶斯时空分析","authors":"Tiia-Maria Pasanen, Miikka Voutilainen, Jouni Helske, Harri Högmander","doi":"10.1111/rssc.12577","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to study pre-industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio-temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Applying the proposed method, we detected spatially asymmetric ‘price ripples’ that spread out from the shock origin. We corroborated the existing literature on the speedier adjustment to emerging price differentials during the famine, but we observed this principally in urban markets. This hastened return to long-run equilibrium means faster and longer travel of price shocks, implying prolonged out-of-equilibrium dynamics, proliferated influence of market shocks, and, importantly, a wider spread of famine conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":49981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/rssc.12577","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine\",\"authors\":\"Tiia-Maria Pasanen, Miikka Voutilainen, Jouni Helske, Harri Högmander\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/rssc.12577\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to study pre-industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio-temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Applying the proposed method, we detected spatially asymmetric ‘price ripples’ that spread out from the shock origin. We corroborated the existing literature on the speedier adjustment to emerging price differentials during the famine, but we observed this principally in urban markets. This hastened return to long-run equilibrium means faster and longer travel of price shocks, implying prolonged out-of-equilibrium dynamics, proliferated influence of market shocks, and, importantly, a wider spread of famine conditions.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49981,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-06-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/rssc.12577\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rssc.12577\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rssc.12577","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine
We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to study pre-industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio-temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Applying the proposed method, we detected spatially asymmetric ‘price ripples’ that spread out from the shock origin. We corroborated the existing literature on the speedier adjustment to emerging price differentials during the famine, but we observed this principally in urban markets. This hastened return to long-run equilibrium means faster and longer travel of price shocks, implying prolonged out-of-equilibrium dynamics, proliferated influence of market shocks, and, importantly, a wider spread of famine conditions.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics) is a journal of international repute for statisticians both inside and outside the academic world. The journal is concerned with papers which deal with novel solutions to real life statistical problems by adapting or developing methodology, or by demonstrating the proper application of new or existing statistical methods to them. At their heart therefore the papers in the journal are motivated by examples and statistical data of all kinds. The subject-matter covers the whole range of inter-disciplinary fields, e.g. applications in agriculture, genetics, industry, medicine and the physical sciences, and papers on design issues (e.g. in relation to experiments, surveys or observational studies).
A deep understanding of statistical methodology is not necessary to appreciate the content. Although papers describing developments in statistical computing driven by practical examples are within its scope, the journal is not concerned with simply numerical illustrations or simulation studies. The emphasis of Series C is on case-studies of statistical analyses in practice.