基于集成经验模态分解的工业用户电力需求预测

Angang Zheng, Yan Liu, Huaiying Shang, Min Ren, Qunlan Xu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

针对工业电力需求波动大、冲击大的特点,研究了超短期需求负荷的多步预测问题。基于积分经验模态分解方法,对不同频率的信号进行有效的分离。然后利用长短时记忆神经网络对不同的信号子序列进行独立预测,最后将子序列预测结果进行组合。实验结果表明,该方法能较好地预测工业需求负荷,MAPE、MAE、NRMSE等指标的预测精度均控制在2%以内,明显优于几种经典时间序列预测模型以及文献中最新的预测算法。该方法消除了传递误差,具有较好的预测精度和稳定性,能够满足需求控制的要求。
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Ensemble empirical mode decomposition based electrical power demand forecasting for industrial user
Aiming to control the industrial power demand characterized by strong fluctuation and impact, this paper studies the multi-step forecasting problem of ultra-short term demand load. Based on the integrated empirical mode decomposition method, the signals with different frequencies are effectively separated by decomposition. Then, the long short memory neural network is used to independently predict different signal subsequences, and finally the subsequence prediction results are combined. The experimental results show that the proposed method can well predict the industrial demand load, and the indices of prediction accuracy, such as MAPE, MAE, and NRMSE, are all controlled within 2%, and are significantly better than several classical time series prediction model, as well as the latest literature algorithms. The transfer error is also eliminated in the method, which represents good prediction accuracy and stability to meet the demand of demand control.
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