预报湖/海效应暴风雪,进展和挑战

IF 6.8 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water Pub Date : 2022-04-29 DOI:10.1002/wat2.1594
A. Fujisaki‐Manome, D. Wright, G. Mann, Eric J. Anderson, P. Chu, C. Jablonowski, S. Benjamin
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引用次数: 2

摘要

湖/海效应降雪通常在深秋至冬季形成,此时冷空气团在温暖的大水面上移动。由此产生的强降雪对生活在下风地区的社区产生了许多社会影响;因此,湖/海效应雪的准确预报对安全和准备工作至关重要。预报湖/海效应积雪极具挑战性,但在过去几十年中,数值预报模式的进步和观测网络的扩大逐步提高了预报能力。最近的进展包括具有高时空分辨率的数值预报模式,可以模拟千米尺度上的强烈暴风雪,并且在模式中经常包含雷达观测。这种更精确的天气预报模式以及地面和遥感观测的结合,有助于业务预报员做出更好的湖/海效应降雪预报。仍然存在的一个挑战是,许多关于降水、地表气象、蒸发和水面供热的观测仍然局限于陆地观测,而关于水的信息,特别是近海的信息仍然是空白。本文概述了湖/海效应雪形成的基本机制、预报技术的发展以及未来需要解决的挑战。
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Forecasting lake‐/sea‐effect snowstorms, advancement, and challenges
Lake‐/sea‐effect snow forms typically from late fall to winter when a cold air mass moves over the warmer, large water surface. The resulting intense snowfall has many societal impacts on communities living in downwind areas; hence, accurate forecasts of lake‐/sea‐effect snow are essential for safety and preparedness. Forecasting lake‐/sea‐effect snow is extremely challenging, but over the past decades the advancement of numerical forecast models and the expansion of observational networks have incrementally improved the forecasting capability. The recent advancement includes numerical forecast models with high spatiotemporal resolutions that allow simulating vigorous snowstorms at the kilometer‐scale and the frequent inclusion of radar observations in the model. This combination of more accurate weather prediction models as well as ground‐based and remotely sensed observations has aided operational forecasters to make better lake‐/sea‐effect snow forecasts. A remaining challenge is that many observations of precipitation, surface meteorology, evaporation, and heat supply from the water surface are still limited to being land‐based and the information over the water, particularly offshore, remains a gap. This primer overviews the basic mechanisms for lake‐/sea‐effect snow formation, evolution of forecast techniques, and challenges to be addressed in the future.
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来源期刊
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water Environmental Science-Ecology
CiteScore
16.60
自引率
3.70%
发文量
56
期刊介绍: The WIREs series is truly unique, blending the best aspects of encyclopedic reference works and review journals into a dynamic online format. These remarkable resources foster a research culture that transcends disciplinary boundaries, all while upholding the utmost scientific and presentation excellence. However, they go beyond traditional publications and are, in essence, ever-evolving databases of the latest cutting-edge reviews.
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