比较韩国和日本货币政策的有效性

Sang-Kee Kim, Geunhyung Yim
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文采用符号约束VAR模型对韩国和日本的货币政策传导渠道及其效果进行了比较分析,以确定韩国是否可以实施日本式的货币政策。结果表明,韩国和日本在货币政策传导渠道上存在相当大的差异。传统的货币政策传导渠道,如汇率渠道、资产价格渠道和银行贷款渠道,在日本运作相对良好。但是,在韩国,利率渠道是有效的,但对汇率的影响只是短期的,对资产价格和银行贷款的影响总体上难以预料。此外,房地产市场的一些潜在风险可能会阻碍金融稳定。韩国和日本的实际生产受到的影响有限。这些结果表明,韩国在实施与日本类似的货币政策时必须谨慎。
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Comparing the Effectiveness of the Monetary Policies in Korea and Japan
This study conducts a comparative analysis of the monetary policy transmission channels and their effects in Korea and Japan using a sign restriction VAR model to determine whether a Japanese-style monetary policy can be implemented in Korea. Results indicate considerable differences between Korea and Japan in their monetary policy transmission channels. Conventional monetary policy transmission channels, such as the exchange rate channel, asset price channel, and bank lending channel, works relatively well in Japan. However, in Korea, the interest rate channel is effective but has only a short-term effect on the exchange rate, and the effects on asset prices and bank lending are hard to expect in general. Furthermore, some potential risks working through the housing market may hinder financial stability. Korea and Japan see a limited effect on production in the real sector. These results imply that Korea must be careful about implementing a similar monetary policy as Japan.
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