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Rebalancing the Euro Area: Is Wage Adjustment in Germany the Answer? 欧元区再平衡:德国的工资调整是答案吗?
Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102497
Mathias Hoffmann, M. Kliem, M. Krause, Stéphane Moyen, Radek Šauer
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引用次数: 4
Labour Markets and Inflation in the Wake of the Pandemic 大流行后的劳动力市场和通货膨胀
Pub Date : 2021-10-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3951233
F. Boissay, E. Kohlscheen, R. Moessner, Daniel M. Rees
The pandemic had a significant effect on labour markets. Working hours fell sharply almost everywhere, but the drivers of these declines varied greatly across countries, depending on whether policies to protect worker-firm relationships were in place. Labour markets have bounced back faster than after recent recessions, albeit unevenly. Even in countries where unemployment rates remain high, job vacancies have risen, including in the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic. Frictions are most pronounced where policy responses did not protect worker-firm relationships. Wages are generally rising more slowly than before the pandemic. However, there is significant dispersion across sectors. Wages are rising fastest in sectors such as information & communications where the pandemic boosted demand, and also in high-contact sectors such as recreation where labour supply has receded. A generalised pickup in wage growth still seems unlikely, even though some countries and sectors have seen increases. However, a retreat in globalisation could make inflation more responsive to labour market pressures.
这一大流行病对劳动力市场产生了重大影响。几乎所有地方的工作时间都急剧下降,但不同国家导致这种下降的因素差异很大,这取决于保护劳资关系的政策是否到位。劳动力市场的反弹速度比最近几次衰退后要快,尽管不均衡。即使在失业率居高不下的国家,职位空缺也在增加,包括受疫情影响最严重的部门。当政策反应不能保护劳资关系时,摩擦最为明显。工资的增长速度普遍低于疫情前。然而,各部门之间存在显著的差异。在信息和通信等行业,工资上涨最快,因为大流行推动了需求,在娱乐等高接触行业,劳动力供应也在减少。尽管一些国家和行业出现了工资增长,但工资增长的普遍回升似乎仍不太可能。然而,全球化进程的倒退可能使通胀对劳动力市场压力的反应更为迅速。
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引用次数: 2
The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on International Mutual Fund Investment 美国货币政策对国际共同基金投资的影响
Pub Date : 2021-10-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3947260
G. Ciminelli, Jack Rogers, Wenbin Wu
We study the effects of U.S. monetary policy on international mutual fund investment. We apply a novel variant of the shock identification procedure in Bu et al. (2021) to decompose observed U.S. monetary policy surprises into pure monetary policy shock and information shock components. We find that an increase in interest rates driven by a pure monetary policy shock leads to persistent outflows from EMs and to a lesser extent global and U.S. mutual funds. On the other hand, when rates increase following a positive information shock investors reallocate capital out of U.S. bonds and into (riskier) equity funds, both U.S. and abroad. We attribute these differences to the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Pure monetary policy shocks tighten financial conditions, while information shocks lower the VIX. Finally, we explore regional heterogeneity in responses. Global EMs and Asia-focused funds suffer sharp outflows after tightening U.S. monetary policy shocks. Information shocks instead lead to large inflows to China-focused funds, reflecting the large economic ties between China and the U.S.
本文研究了美国货币政策对国际共同基金投资的影响。我们在Bu等人(2021)中应用了冲击识别过程的一种新变体,将观察到的美国货币政策意外分解为纯粹的货币政策冲击和信息冲击组件。我们发现,纯粹由货币政策冲击驱动的利率上升,导致新兴市场资金持续流出,全球和美国共同基金也在较小程度上出现资金外流。另一方面,当积极的信息冲击导致利率上升时,投资者将资金从美国债券中重新配置到(风险更高的)股票基金中,无论是在美国还是在国外。我们将这些差异归因于货币政策的风险承担渠道。纯粹的货币政策冲击收紧了金融状况,而信息冲击降低了波动率指数。最后,我们探讨了响应的区域异质性。在美国收紧货币政策冲击后,全球新兴市场和专注于亚洲的基金遭遇了大幅资金外流。相反,信息冲击导致大量资金流入以中国为重点的基金,反映出中美之间巨大的经济联系
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引用次数: 7
Safe Assets and Financial Fragility: Theory and Evidence 安全资产与金融脆弱性:理论与证据
Pub Date : 2021-10-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3460800
Toni Ahnert, M. Macchiavelli
How does the access to safe assets affect the fragility and lending behavior of financial intermediaries? We develop a global-game model of investor redemptions from money market funds that hold safe assets and fund risky corporate borrowers. Using the 2013 U.S. debt limit episode and the Federal Reserve's Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ONRRP) facility as our empirical laboratory, we provide evidence consistent with the model's implications. In particular, access to a safe asset---the ONRRP---attenuates investor redemption incentives and allows money market mutual funds to maintain their lending to corporate borrowers. Overall, our results suggest that the public provision of a safe asset reduces intermediary fragility and increases lending to the real economy.
获得安全资产如何影响金融中介机构的脆弱性和贷款行为?我们开发了一个投资者从货币市场基金赎回的全球博弈模型,这些基金持有安全资产,并为高风险的公司借款人提供资金。利用2013年美国债务上限事件和美联储隔夜逆回购(ONRRP)工具作为我们的实证实验室,我们提供了与模型含义一致的证据。特别是,获得一种安全资产——ONRRP——降低了投资者的赎回动机,并允许货币市场共同基金继续向企业借款人放贷。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,公共提供安全资产降低了中介机构的脆弱性,并增加了对实体经济的贷款。
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引用次数: 1
Explorations in Economic History: A Test of Structural Break in the US Money Supply Data 经济史探索:对美国货币供给数据结构性断裂的检验
Pub Date : 2021-10-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3937705
A. Amiraslany, H. Luitel, Gerry J. Mahar
In a televised address to the Nation on Sunday evening, August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon announced the “temporary” suspension of the dollar’s convertibility into gold. While the dollar had struggled throughout most of the 1960s within the parity established at Bretton Woods, Nixon’s announcement of the closing of the gold window greatly signified the end of the Bretton Woods system. We argue that the federal policies to supply money under the gold exchange standard prevalent before closing the gold window and the fiat currency regime that replaced the gold exchange standard after closing the gold window are substantially different. In this paper, we provide evidence of structural breaks in the M1 and M2 measures of money supply time series data due to the policy switch from the gold exchange standard to the fiat currency system.
1971年8月15日星期日晚上,理查德·尼克松总统向全国发表电视讲话,宣布“暂时”中止美元与黄金的可兑换性。在20世纪60年代的大部分时间里,美元一直在布雷顿森林体系确立的平价内挣扎,而尼克松宣布关闭黄金窗口,在很大程度上标志着布雷顿森林体系的终结。我们认为,在关闭黄金窗口之前,在黄金汇兑本位下提供货币的联邦政策与在关闭黄金窗口后取代黄金汇兑本位的法定货币制度有本质上的不同。在本文中,我们提供了货币供应时间序列数据中M1和M2测量的结构性断裂的证据,这是由于政策从金本位制转向法定货币体系。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical Investigation of a Sufficient Statistic for Monetary Shocks 货币冲击充分统计量的实证研究
Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3947115
F. Álvarez, Andreas Ferrara, E. Gautier, Hervé le Bihan, F. Lippi
In a broad class of sticky price models the non-neutrality of nominal shocks is encoded by a simple sufficient statistic: the ratio of the kurtosis of the size-distribution of price changes over the frequency of price changes. We test this theoretical prediction using data for a large number of firms representative of the French economy. We use the micro data to measure the cross sectional moments, including kurtosis and frequency, for about 120 PPI industries and 220 CPI categories. We use a Factor Augmented VAR to measure the sectoral responses to a monetary shock, as summarized by the cumulative impulse response of sectoral prices (CIRP), under three alternative identification schemes. The estimated CIRP correlates with the kurtosis and the frequency consistently with the prediction of the theory - i.e. they enter the relationship as a ratio. The analysis also shows that other moments not suggested by the theory, such as the mean, standard deviation and skewness of the size-distribution of price changes, are not correlated with the CIRP. Several robustness checks are explored.
在一类广泛的粘性价格模型中,名义冲击的非中性是由一个简单的充分统计量来编码的:价格变化的大小分布的峰度与价格变化的频率之比。我们使用代表法国经济的大量公司的数据来检验这一理论预测。我们使用微观数据测量了120个PPI行业和220个CPI类别的横截面矩,包括峰度和频率。我们使用因子增强VAR来衡量部门对货币冲击的反应,正如在三种替代识别方案下由部门价格的累积脉冲响应(CIRP)所总结的那样。估计的CIRP与峰度和频率相关,与理论预测一致,即它们以比率的形式进入关系。分析还表明,该理论未提出的其他时刻,如价格变化规模分布的均值、标准差和偏度,与CIRP不相关。探讨了几种鲁棒性检查。
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引用次数: 7
The Mobile Money Prevalence Index (MMPI): A Country-Level Indicator for Assessing the Adoption, Activity and Accessibility of Mobile Money 移动货币流行指数(MMPI):用于评估移动货币的采用、活动和可及性的国家级指标
Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3935919
Simon K. Andersson-Manjang
This paper presents a new index for the global mobile money industry – the Mobile Money Prevalence Index (MMPI). It is the first time a global index has been created with the purpose of measuring the prevalence of mobile money at country level. The MMPI considers a set of mobile money metrics in order to facilitate comparisons between markets, thereby enabling third parties to gauge whether engagement would lead to expected impact. The purpose of the index is to support decision making for public and private stakeholders alike.
本文提出了全球移动货币行业的一个新指标——移动货币流行指数(MMPI)。这是第一次创建一个全球指数,目的是衡量国家层面上移动货币的普及程度。MMPI考虑了一套移动货币指标,以促进市场之间的比较,从而使第三方能够衡量用户粘性是否会产生预期的影响。该指数的目的是为公共和私人利益相关者提供决策支持。
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引用次数: 4
On Interest-Bearing Central Bank Digital Currency with Heterogeneous Banks 异质银行有息央行数字货币研究
Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3802977
Rodney J. Garratt, Haoxiang Zhu
We explore the implications of introducing an interest-bearing central bank digital currency (CBDC) through commercial banks that differ in size. Banks of heterogeneous sizes offer different convenience properties to depositors, which the CBDC adopts. The large bank gives depositors a higher convenience value and hence possesses market power. The interest rate on CBDC puts a lower bound on banks’ deposit interest rates, which is particularly binding on the large bank. While a higher CBDC interest rate enhances monetary policy pass-through by raising deposit interest rates, it reduces the small bank's deposit market share and its lending volume. By contrast, a CBDC that delivers its own convenience value to users levels the playing field by shifting deposits and lending from the large bank to the small one, although it can enhance or reduce the transmission of monetary policy.
我们探讨了通过不同规模的商业银行引入有息央行数字货币(CBDC)的影响。不同规模的银行为存款人提供了不同的便利属性,CBDC采用了这一点。大银行为存款人提供了更高的便利价值,因此拥有市场支撑力。CBDC的利率设定了银行存款利率的下限,这对大银行尤其具有约束力。虽然较高的CBDC利率通过提高存款利率来增强货币政策的传导,但它会降低小银行的存款市场份额和贷款额。相比之下,CBDC通过将存款和贷款从大银行转移到小银行,为用户提供自身的便利价值,从而创造了公平的竞争环境,尽管它可以增强或减少货币政策的传导。
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引用次数: 20
Scissors Require Two Blades: Central Bank Independence with (Principled) Central Bank Allocation 剪刀需要两把刀:中央银行独立与(原则的)中央银行配置
Pub Date : 2021-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3918988
R. Hockett
I critique the contemporary doctrine of central bank independence and its implicit correlate, the dogma that central banks can and must engage only in what I call credit modulation without engaging in what I call credit allocation. This thought-complex is wrong-headed as to both premise and conclusion. The premise is faulty in that macro-allocation in favor of productive as distinguished from merely speculative credit flows is no more difficult to manage, technically and politically, than is the distinction between modulation and allocation itself. The conclusion is faulty both for its grounding in a false premise and for its overlooking that sound modulation is impossible without sound allocation. This impossibility is in turn rooted in the nature of endogenous Wicksellian credit-money, which through the dynamics of what I call recursive collective action problems inevitably fuels inescapable bubbles and busts. Privately ordered production, I conclude, requires publicly ordered finance.
我批评当代关于央行独立性及其隐含相关性的教条,这种教条认为,央行能够而且必须只参与我所称的信贷调节,而不参与我所称的信贷分配。这种思想情结在前提和结论上都是错误的。这个前提是错误的,因为在技术和政治上,与调节和分配本身的区别相比,有利于生产性信贷流动(区别于纯粹的投机性信贷流动)的宏观分配并不更难管理。这个结论是错误的,因为它建立在一个错误的前提上,并且忽略了没有声音分配就不可能有声音调制。这种不可能性反过来又植根于内生的维克塞尔式信贷货币的本质,它通过我称之为递归集体行动问题的动力,不可避免地引发了不可避免的泡沫和破裂。我的结论是,私人订制的生产需要公共订制的融资。
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引用次数: 0
Clear, Consistent and Engaging: ECB Monetary Policy Communication in a Changing World 清晰、一致和参与:不断变化的世界中的欧洲央行货币政策沟通
Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3928296
Katrin Assenmacher, G. Glöckler, Sarah Holton, Peter Trautmann, Demosthenes Ioannou, Simon Mee, Klára Bakk-Simon, S. Bergbauer, M. Catenaro, Evangelos Charalampakis, Michael Ehrmann, G. Ferrero, Dimitris Georgarakos, P. Gertler, A. Giovannini, Roel Grandia, N. Hernborg, Niko Herrala, Danielle Kedan, G. Kenny, Tobias Linzert, Marta Manrique, R. Mestre, Emanuel Mönch, S. Nardelli, Nele Nomm, Lora Pavlova, Guido Schultefrankenfeld, M. Silgoner, Ifigeneia Skotida, Bernhard Winkler, M. Bitterlich, Eleni K. Argiri, Conception Alonso, Jennifer Byron, Filippo Arigoni, M. Deroose, Marius Gardt, Klodiana Istrefi, Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Jennie Hellström, Patrick Huertgen, Krista Kalnberzina, Georgi Kocharkov, Víctor Márquez, Corina Ruhe, Martin Šanta, Reet Reedik, Geert Sciot, Aliki Stylianou, Evan Taylor
This paper examines the importance of central bank communication in ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy and in underpinning the credibility, accountability and legitimacy of independent central banks. It documents how communication has become a monetary policy tool in itself; one example of this being forward guidance, given its impact on inflation expectations, economic behaviour and inflation. The paper explains why and how consistent, clear and effective communication to expert and non-expert audiences is essential in an environment of an ever-increasing need by central banks to reach these audiences. Central banks must also meet the demand for more understandable information about policies and tools, while at the same time overcoming the challenge posed by the wider public’s rational inattention. Since the European Central Bank was established, the communications landscape has changed dramatically and continues to evolve. This paper outlines how better communication, including greater engagement with the wider public, could help boost people’s understanding of and trust in the Eurosystem.
本文考察了中央银行沟通在确保货币政策有效性以及支撑独立中央银行的可信度、问责制和合法性方面的重要性。它记录了沟通本身如何成为一种货币政策工具;考虑到前瞻指引对通胀预期、经济行为和通胀的影响,前瞻指引就是一个例子。本文解释了在中央银行与这些受众的需求不断增长的环境中,与专家和非专家受众进行一致、清晰和有效的沟通为何以及如何至关重要。各国央行还必须满足人们对政策和工具方面更容易理解的信息的需求,与此同时,还要克服更广泛的公众理性的不关注所带来的挑战。自欧洲中央银行成立以来,通信领域发生了巨大变化,并将继续发展。本文概述了更好的沟通,包括更广泛的公众参与,如何有助于提高人们对欧元体系的理解和信任。
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引用次数: 10
期刊
Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal
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