21世纪美俄在不对称冲突中的得失

L. Deriglazova
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摘要

本文通过不对称冲突理论的棱镜,探讨了21世纪初武装冲突的特点。在该理论的框架内,区分了基本的和伴随的不对称,这决定了发达国家在与相对弱小的对手的战争中失败的政治原因,而不是军事原因。21世纪初,大多数武装冲突都出现了影响冲突进程和结果的多重不对称迹象。根据这一理论,可以区分出军队和政治家在规划和进行军事行动时应考虑到的几个重要方面。其中包括:从国际法的角度来看军事行动的合法性,消除反战情绪,尽量减少军事人员的损失,确保战区人口的安全。国外分析的特点是关注美国和其他西方国家在阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亚和叙利亚的军事行动失败的原因。失败的原因包括不了解发生敌对行动的国家的文化和特点、占领制度和企图建立国家。一些外国专家指出,俄罗斯联邦在参与21世纪的不对称冲突方面要成功得多。在俄罗斯军事专家中,在与西方国家地缘政治对抗的框架内,有一种明显的兴趣是发展一种“不对称战争”战略。发展非接触作战方法的趋势和私营军事公司的参与,以消除反战情绪和尽量减少军事人员的损失,具有普遍的特点。与此同时,这种战争方法的非选择性及其遵守国际法的问题正变得越来越尖锐。不对称冲突理论是一种国际关系理论,其主要假设是政治家和军方在决定敌对行动的开始和通过军事手段实现政治目标的可能性的过程中考虑到的,而不仅仅是在不对称冲突中寻找胜利的战略。
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Victories and Losses of the USA and Russia in Asymmetric Conflicts at 21st Century
The article discusses the features of armed confl icts at the beginning of the 21st century through the prism of the theory of asymmetric confl ict. Within the framework of the theory, basic and accompanying asymmetries are distinguished, which determine the reasons for the political, rather than military, defeat of developed countries in wars against relatively weak opponents. At the beginning of the 21st century most of the armed confl icts have pronounced signs of multiple asymmetries that aff ect the course and outcome of confl icts. On the basis of the theory, several important aspects can be distinguished that should be taken into account by the military and politicians when planning and conducting military operations. Among them: the legitimacy of military operations from the point of view of international law, neutralization of anti-war sentiments, minimization of losses of military personnel, ensuring the safety of the population in the war zone. Foreign analytics is characterized by a focus on the reasons for the failures of the United States and other Western states in military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Among the reasons for the failures are a lack of understanding of the culture and characteristics of the countries where hostilities are conducted, the regime of occupation, and attempts at nation-building. Some foreign experts note that the Russian Federation is much more successful in participating in asymmetric confl icts of the 21st century. Among Russian military experts, there is a noticeable interest in developing an “asymmetric war” strategy in the framework of the geopolitical confrontation with the countries of the West. The tendency to develop non-contact methods of warfare and the involvement of private military companies to neutralize anti-war sentiments and minimize losses of military personnel has a universal character. At the same time, the problem of non-selectivity of such methods of warfare and their compliance with international law is becoming more and more acute. The theory of asymmetric confl ict is a theory of international relations, which main assumptions are are useful for politicians and the military to take into account in the process of deciding on the start of hostilities and the possibility of achieving political goals by military means, and not just for fi nding victorious strategies in asymmetric confl icts.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
27.30%
发文量
35
期刊介绍: The main objective of the International Journal of Business Analytics (IJBAN) is to advance the next frontier of decision sciences and provide an international forum for practitioners and researchers in business and governmental organizations—as well as information technology professionals, software developers, and vendors—to exchange, share, and present useful and innovative ideas and work. The journal encourages exploration of different models, methods, processes, and principles in profitable and actionable manners.
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