荷兰向台湾出售潜艇:如何判断政府行为?

Paul Rusman
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引用次数: 0

摘要

荷兰1980年向台湾出售主要武器,与荷兰最近承认中华人民共和国是中国的唯一代表背道而驰。这导致两国外交关系破裂,尽管荷兰外交部强烈反对该交易,但这一结果似乎出乎意料。几年后,由相同党派组成的新政府拒绝了后续命令。荷兰政府为何如此逆风而行?是什么让它改变了航向?这些问题都是用国际关系理论的方法来解决的,比如政治军事战略、外交政策的良好判断和(国际)政治经济学。然而,在这种情况下,分析师不能满足于简单的解释。如果把荷兰视为一个实力强大但规模较小的国家,在高风险的驱使下,它会尽最大努力探索自己面对中国仅有的一点回旋余地,这或许不是一个富有成效的角度?
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The Netherlands selling submarines to Taiwan: how to judge government action?
The Dutch sale of major weapons to Taiwan in 1980 ran counter to the Netherlands’ recent recognition of the People’s Republic of China as the sole representative of China. This led to a rupture of diplomatic relations, an outcome seemingly unexpected in spite of the Dutch Foreign Ministry’s strong opposition to the deal. A few years later a new government composed of the same parties turned down a follow-up order. Why did the Dutch government sail so close to the wind and what made it change course? Such questions are tackled using approaches from international relations theory, such as politico-military strategy, good judgment in foreign policy, and (international) political economy. Yet in this case the analyst cannot be satisfied with easy explanations. Might not a fruitful angle be to consider the Netherlands as a highly competent but small state, driven by the high stakes involved to explore to the limit what little manoeuvring room it had vis-a-vis China?
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Journal of European Integration History
Journal of European Integration History Arts and Humanities-History
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