基于情景分析的中国能源相关二氧化碳排放展望

Juan Wang, Haizhen Yang, Zhi-bo Lu
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引用次数: 3

摘要

持续快速的经济增长和庞大的人口使中国的能源需求大幅增加,以煤炭为主导的能源结构使中国超过美国成为世界上最大的能源相关二氧化碳排放国。在对中国未来一次能源需求预测的基础上,设计了二氧化碳高、中、低排放情景对中国的二氧化碳排放量进行预测。最后,将预测结果与其他研究机构的类似预测结果进行比较,为进一步研究中国能源相关的CO2减排措施提供依据。
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Prospect of Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emission in China Based on Scenario Analysis
continually rapid economic growth and huge population cause a substantial increasing of energy demand in China, and coal-dominated energy structure have made China overtake the United States as the world’s biggest producer of energy-related CO2. Based on the projection of primary energy demand of China in the future, high, medium and low scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions are designed to forecast carbon dioxide emissions in China. Finally the forecasting result is compared with the similar prediction made by other research institutions, which provides basis for the further study on energy-related CO2 emission reduction measure in China.
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