城市间公路交通事故行人伤害严重程度影响因素的潜在类多项式logistic分析

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2022-12-08 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2022.2153952
W. Agyemang, E. Adanu, Jun Liu, Steven Jones
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引用次数: 1

摘要

多年来,在加纳高速公路沿线的定居点,人类和高速车辆活动的不受控制的相互作用导致了许多行人的死亡和受伤。造成这种现象的原因是土地利用和路权规划,以及缺乏安全穿越高速公路的行人过街设施。在制定减少全国高速公路沿线行人死亡人数的战略方面,政府反应迟缓,导致了许多公众抗议。为了推进数据驱动和基于证据的方法来寻找适当的对策,本研究调查了与加纳城市间公路碰撞行人伤害结果相关的因素。使用潜在类多项logit建模方法来解释在加纳高速公路上记录的五年行人-车辆碰撞数据中未观察到的异质性。模型估计结果表明,超速、肇事逃逸和涉及公共汽车的碰撞更有可能导致致命伤害,而发生在没有肩部的高速公路路段的碰撞更有可能导致住院治疗。研究结果为制定适当的对策提供了依据,以减少加纳和该次区域其他具有类似特征的国家城市间高速公路上行人的死亡和受伤人数。
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A latent class multinomial logit analysis of factors associated with pedestrian injury severity of inter-urban highway crashes
Abstract Over the years, the uncontrolled interaction of human and high-speed vehicular activities at settlement areas along highways in Ghana has resulted in many pedestrian fatalities and injuries. This phenomenon has been attributed to the land-use and right-of-way planning and lack of pedestrian crossing facilities for safe crossing of highways. The slow response to developing strategies to reduce pedestrian fatalities along the nation’s highways has led to many public protests. To advance a data-driven and evidence-based approach to finding appropriate countermeasures, this study investigated the factors associated with pedestrian injury outcomes of inter-urban highway crashes in Ghana. Latent class multinomial logit modeling method was employed to account for unobserved heterogeneity in a five-year pedestrian-vehicle crash data recorded on highways in Ghana. The model estimation results show that speeding, hit and run and crashes that involve buses were more likely to result in fatal injury while crashes that occurred at highway sections with no shoulder were more likely to result in hospitalized injury. The findings of the study provide basis for the development of appropriate countermeasures to reduce the number of pedestrian deaths and injuries on high-speed inter-urban highways in Ghana and other countries with similar characteristics in the sub-region.
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CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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