Information Cascades Modeling via Deep Multi-Task Learning

Effectively modeling and predicting the information cascades is at the core of understanding the information diffusion, which is essential for many related downstream applications, such as fake news detection and viral marketing identification. Conventional methods for cascade prediction heavily depend on the hypothesis of diffusion models and hand-crafted features. Owing to the significant recent successes of deep learning in multiple domains, attempts have been made to predict cascades by developing neural networks based approaches. However, the existing models are not capable of capturing both the underlying structure of a cascade graph and the node sequence in the diffusion process which, in turn, results in unsatisfactory prediction performance. In this paper, we propose a deep multi-task learning framework with a novel design of shared-representation layer to aid in explicitly understanding and predicting the cascades. As it turns out, the learned latent representation from the shared-representation layer can encode the structure and the node sequence of the cascade very well. Our experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that our method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy and reduce the computational cost compared to state-of-the-art baselines.