今天存更多钱还是明天存更多钱:紧迫性和当前偏见在推动预先承诺中的作用

Joseph T. Reiff, Hengchen Dai, J. Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, S. Benartzi
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引用次数: 1

摘要

过去的研究表明,为了鼓励有远见的行为,营销人员可能会明智地邀请消费者预先承诺“以后”采用这些行为。然而,通过一项大型、多地点的退休储蓄决策现场实验和三项预先注册的实验室研究(N=10,255),我们发现,同时为消费者提供现在或以后采取有远见行为的机会,并没有一致的好处。与我们调查的专家的预测相反,我们所谓的“同步预承诺”并不总是比简单地让消费者选择现在就采取有远见的行为来增加有远见的行为,甚至可能是有害的(例如,减少储蓄)。我们推测有两种相反的机制可以解释这一结果。首先,同时的预承诺利用了当前的偏见,降低了采用前瞻性行为的预期成本,从而增加了采用。然而,同时的预承诺也会导致人们推断,采取行动并不是迫切需要的,这减少了对有远见行为的采用(特别是立即采取)。我们还发现,预先承诺的设计缓和了这种效应:在某人拒绝采取一种有远见的行为后,提供预先承诺实际上增加了推断的紧迫性,促进了采用。
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Save More Today or Tomorrow: The Role of Urgency and Present Bias in Nudging Pre-commitment
To encourage farsighted behaviors, past research suggests marketers may be wise to invite consumers to pre-commit to adopt them “later”. However, across a large, multi-site field experiment of retirement savings decisions and three pre-registered laboratory studies (N=10,255), we find no consistent benefit from simultaneously offering consumers the opportunity to adopt farsighted behaviors now or later. Contrary to predictions of experts we surveyed, what we call “simultaneous pre-commitment” does not always increase farsighted behavior over simply offering consumers the option to adopt farsighted behaviors now and can even be harmful (e.g., reducing savings). We theorize that two opposing mechanisms account for this result. First, simultaneous pre-commitment leverages present bias and decreases the anticipated costs of adopting farsighted behaviors, thus increasing adoption. However, simultaneous pre-commitment also leads people to infer that taking action is not urgently recommended, which decreases adoption of farsighted behaviors (particularly immediate adoption). We also find that the design of pre-commitment moderates this effect: offering pre- commitment after someone declines to adopt a farsighted behavior now actually increases inferred urgency, boosting adoption.
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