新兴的中国及其影响

T. Aoki
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引用次数: 0

摘要

20世纪70年代,世界经历了两次石油危机。尤其是日本,在发达国家中受到1973年第一次石油危机的重创。但日本通过引进高科技产业克服了经济困难。通过这种方式,日本很容易地度过了1979年的第二次石油危机。1980年前后,克服两次石油危机的日本被视为“日本第一”。在此之后,日本通过引进高新技术,提高了国际竞争力,使经常收支顺差在世界上排名第一。另一方面,美国担心的是“双赤字”,即贸易赤字和联邦预算赤字。1985年在美国华盛顿广场酒店举行的“解决两国间国际收支不平衡的方案”就是以调整日元对美元汇率为契机。利用这个机会,日本公司在世界各地部署了生产设施。特别是亚洲国家认真引进了许多日本出口企业,使亚洲国家在1997年亚洲货币危机之前的二十多年里保持了经济的高速增长。在此之后,尤其是亚洲国家中的东盟不得不降低经济增长率。自1979年工业改革开放以来,大量引进外资的中国取代了东盟,在过去的20年里,中国的经济增长率几乎达到了两位数。2005年,中国GDP规模居世界第四位。到2004年,中国的出口和进口已分别居世界第三位。在这种良好表现的推动下,中国正进一步瞄准以出口扩张为杠杆,成为继美国之后的全球大国。为了实现这一目标,中国需要海外市场和基础设施相辅相成,两者是一个硬币的两面。目前,中国正在稳步推进这两方面的建设。中国正在向工业化迈进,其标志是机械和信息技术产品的主要出口国之一。美国是中国最大的出口目的地。为此,中国需要零部件、中间产品和资本品来支持出口。这些商品的主要供应国是东亚国家。东亚国家的进口在中国进口总额中所占的比例增长非常迅速,特别是在机械和IT产品零部件方面。作为回应,包括日本在内的其他东亚国家正在加强对中国的出口,中国在区域内贸易中扮演着“磁石”的角色。中国不仅在亚洲区域内贸易中,而且在世界贸易中也发挥着作用。在这个过程中,中国正在引发可能影响全世界的结构性变化。在正在进行的结构性变化中,最重要的是取代日本,特别是在亚洲区域内贸易和太平洋贸易方面。本文旨在分析新兴中国的变化现状及取代日本的机制。
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Emerging China and Its Impact
In 1970s World has witnessed two oil crises.Especially Japan was seriously damaged among the developed countries by the first oil crisis happened in 1973.But Japan has overcome economic difficulties by inducing hi-tech in the industries.By this Japan has easily got around the second oil crisis in 1979.Japan, overcoming two oil crises, is looked upon as “Japan as No.1”around 1980.After this, Japan, strengthening international competitiveness by inducing hi-tech is adding up the surplus in the current balance which is the largest in the world.On the otherhand America is worried by“twin deficits”, that is to say, the deficits in trade and the federal budget.The solution of international imbalance between two countries is aimed to adjust yen-dollar currency at the Plaza Hotel in Washington in 1985.On this opportunity Japanese firms deployed their production facilities all over the world.Especially Asian countries have earnestly introduced many Japanese export-oriented firms, by which Asian countries have enjoyed high economic growth as long as over twenties years until 1997 when Asian currency crisis happened.After this especially ASEAN among Asian countries are obliged to lower economic growth.Taking the place of ASEAN, China which has been introducing voluminous foreign capitals since Industrial Reforms and Open-Door Policy starting in 1979, has enjoyed almost two-digit economic growth over twenties years. At 2005 China ranks No.4 in the world in terms of GDP scale.At the previous 2004 China has become No.3 both in the world export and import respectively.Driving on this good performance, China is further aiming to be a global power after America using export expansion as a lever.To realize the purpose China needs overseas market and the infrastructure to support each other, both of which are sides as a coin.China is now building both steadily. China is driving forward towards industrialization, which is symbolized by one of the leading exporters both of machinery and IT goods.America is the largest export destination for China.For this China needs parts, intermediates goods and capital goods to support export.The main suppliers of these goods are East Asian countries.The import ratio of East Asian countries in the total Chinese import is increasing so rapidly especially in the machinery and IT goods parts. Responding to this the other East Asian countries including Japan are strengthening export to China which is playing a roll as “magnetic place” in the intraregional trade. China is making her presence felt not only in the Asian intraregional trade but also in the world trade.On its process China is inducing structural changes which might influence all over the world.Of the on-going structural changes, the most important is to take the place of Japan especially both in the Asian intraregional trade and Pacific trade.This paper is to analyze the changing status of emerging China and the mechanism to supersede Japan.
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