国民储蓄宏观经济变量的贝叶斯分析

Oluwadare O. Ojo, A. Adepoju
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要多重共线性给回归模型的估计带来了障碍。最经典的回归模型估计方法的一个主要障碍是它在存在极端完美多重共线性时是不确定的。本研究考察了一些宏观经济变量对尼日利亚国民储蓄的影响。由于这些宏观经济变量中的大多数是高度相关的,使用经典方法可能是灾难性的不合适。因此,为了有效地处理多重共线性问题,本文采用共轭先验贝叶斯分析来探讨尼日利亚经济中国民储蓄与这些相关宏观经济变量之间的关系。利用Zellner先验的贝叶斯方法有效地处理了多重共线性问题。
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Bayesian analysis of macroeconomic variables on national savings
Abstract Multicollinearity brings obstacle to estimation of regression models. A major stumbling block of the most classical method of estimation of regression model is that it is indeterminate in the presence of extreme perfect multicollinearity. This study examined the impact of some macroeconomic variables on National savings of the Nigerian economy. Since majority of these macroeconomic variables are highly correlated, the use of classical methods may be disastrously inappropriate. Hence, the Bayesian analysis with conjugate priors are used to explore the relationship between the national savings and these correlated macroeconomic variables of Nigerian economy in order to effectively handle the problem of multicollinearity. The Bayesian method using the Zellner’s prior handled the problem of multicollinearity efficiently.
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