墨西哥总进口需求函数的估计:协整分析

José Antonio Romero Tellaeche, Rodrigo Aliphat
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的本研究估计了收入、进口价格和国内价格的总进口需求弹性。高度的进口倾向是墨西哥经济增长的一个重大障碍,因为增加出口或任何其他总需求扩大的好处会泄漏到世界其他地区。本文估计了一个考虑收入、进口价格和国内价格的进口总需求弹性矢量误差修正模型。进口总额是因变量,而国内生产总值(GDP)、进口和国内价格是自变量。主要发现是,墨西哥GDP每增加1比索,导致墨西哥进口增加0.50比索;进口需求对价格的弹性较低。但是,进口需求对国内价格的弹性是进口价格弹性的2.14倍。这些结果具有重要的经济政策意义,例如促进国内市场的扩大和出口的国家含量。研究的局限性/意义由于有数据,估计整个1993-2019年期间的进口需求函数是很有诱惑力的。但如果这样做,作者会高估进口倾向,因为从1993年到2019年,进口占GDP的比例从1993年的11.37%上升到2019年的29.66%。因此,估算2000 - 2019年这段进口占GDP比重稳定的时期的进口需求函数更有意义。独创性/价值发展中国家的高进口水平意味着其总需求的很大一部分被过滤到国外。因此,其出口对GDP的低影响与墨西哥经济的高进口有关。作者用新的数据和方法计算了这种关系。
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Estimation of the aggregate import demand function for Mexico: a cointegration analysis
PurposeThis study estimated total import demand elasticities concerning income, import prices and domestic prices. A high propensity to import constitutes a significant obstacle to economic growth in Mexico since the benefits of increased exports or any other aggregate demand expansion leak to the rest of the world.Design/methodology/approachThis paper estimated a Vector Error Correction Model of the total import demand elasticities concerning income, import prices and domestic prices. Total imports are a dependent variable, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and import and domestic prices are the independent variables.FindingsThe principal finding is that an increase of 1 peso in the Mexican GDP leads to a rise of 0.50 pesos in Mexican imports; the elasticity of import demand for prices is low. Still, the elasticity of import demand for domestic prices is 2.14 times greater than that for import prices. These results have significant economic policy implications, such as promoting the expansion of the domestic market and the national content of exports.Research limitations/implicationsIt is tempting to estimate the import demand function for the entire 1993–2019 period since such data is available. But by doing so, the authors would overestimate the propensity to import, given that from 1993 to 2019, the proportion of imports as a percentage of GDP went from 11.37 in 1993 to 29.66 in 2019. Therefore, it makes more sense to estimate the import demand function from 2000 to 2019, a period with a stable proportion of imports to GDP.Originality/valueA high level of imports in developing countries means that much of their aggregate demand is filtered abroad. Therefore, the low impact of its exports on GDP is related to the Mexican economy’s high imports. The authors calculate this relationship with new data and methods.
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来源期刊
Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science
Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
20.80%
发文量
23
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Universidad ESAN, with more than 50 years of experience in the higher education field and post graduate studies, desires to contribute to the academic community with the most outstanding pieces of research. We gratefully welcome suggestions and contributions from business areas such as operations, supply chain, economics, finance and administration. We publish twice a year, six articles for each issue.
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