利用WRF模式分析孟加拉湾甚强气旋风暴范尼的路径和登陆特征

Md Shakil Hossain, Md Abdus Samad, Most Razia Sultana, M. Mallik, Md Joshem Uddin
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引用次数: 4

摘要

本文试图评估天气研究与预报(WRF)模式模拟热带气旋(TC) Fani(2019年4月25日至5月5日)在孟加拉湾(BoB)上空的路径和登陆特征的能力。WRF模型使用全球数据同化系统(GDAS)数据在10公里水平分辨率的单一域上进行(0.250×0.250)。该模型预测的结果与孟加拉国气象局(BMD)和印度气象局(IMD)的观测数据集非常吻合。研究发现,模型运行提前期的缩短在提供与最小预测不确定性的良好一致性方面起着至关重要的作用。还确定了轨道和强度预报偏差之间的强相关性。结果表明,模型仿真在捕获强度预测偏差最小的情况下,也保证了系统更好的轨迹预测。该模式预报的路径和登陆提前27小时的可行性较好。最后,可以确定该模型能够准确地预测气旋风暴Fani,并且可以自信地选择它来预测BoB的未来事件。达卡大学学报(自然科学版),69(2):101- 108,2021 (7)
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Track and Landfall Characteristics of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Fani over the Bay of Bengal using WRF Model
An attempt has been made to assess the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating the track and landfall characteristics of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Fani (25th April – 05th May 2019) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). WRF model has conducted on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution using Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data (0.250×0.250). The model predicted outcomes show auspicious agreement with the observed datasets of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and India Meteorological Department (IMD). It is found that the diminished lead time of the model run plays a crucial role in delivering good consistency with the minimum forecast uncertainty. A strong correlation between the track and intensity forecast deviations has also been determined. According to the results, the model simulation which captures the minimum deviation in the intensity forecast also ensures better track prediction of the system. The feasibility of the track and landfall forecast by the model even up to 27 hr advance is reasonably well. Finally, it can be decided that the model is capable to predict the cyclonic storm Fani precisely and it can be chosen confidently for future events over the BoB. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 69(2): 101-108, 2021 (July)
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