Occurrence of mycotoxins in rice consumed by Iranians: a probabilistic assessment of risk to health

ABSTRACT Risks based on cancer and non-cancer endpoints, to Iranians from exposure to several mycotoxins (aflatoxin B1, ochratoxin, deoxynivalenol and T-2 toxin) following consumption of rice were evaluated. Point estimates of hazard were made for each mycotoxin and a hazard index (HI) and probabilistic estimates were based on results of Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). All known 17 peer-reviewed studies, published in databases included in Science Direct, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science, as well as grey literature published in Google Scholar from 2008 to 2017 were considered. The 95th and 50th centiles of Hazard Index (HI) in Iranians due to ingestion of rice were estimated to be 2.5 and 0.5, respectively. The 95th and 50th centiles of people with positive surface antigens for hepatitis B (HBsAg+) risk characterisation for AFB1 in Iranian consumers of rice were 81 and 79.1, respectively. The 95th and 50th centiles for risks of Iranians negative for the surface antigen of hepatitis B HBsAg (HBsAg-) were 4.4 and 2.6, respectively. Based on results of the MCS for risks to cancer effects, the 95th and 50th centiles of margins of exposure (MOE) were 233 and 231, respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to update agricultural approaches and storage methods and implement monitoring and regulations based on risks to health posed by consumption of rice by the Iranian population.