Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, N. Sander
{"title":"2019冠状病毒病与中小企业:2021年的“定时炸弹”?","authors":"Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, N. Sander","doi":"10.3386/W28418","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in SME failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020, on their own, do not create a 2021 “time-bomb” for SMEs. Rather, business failures and policy costs remain modest. By contrast, credit contraction poses a significant risk. Such a contraction would disproportionately impact firms that could survive COVID-19 in 2020 without any fiscal support. Even in that scenario, most business failures would not arise from excessively generous 2020 policies, but rather from the contraction of credit to the corporate sector.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"19","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 \\\"Time Bomb\\\"?\",\"authors\":\"Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, N. Sander\",\"doi\":\"10.3386/W28418\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in SME failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020, on their own, do not create a 2021 “time-bomb” for SMEs. Rather, business failures and policy costs remain modest. By contrast, credit contraction poses a significant risk. Such a contraction would disproportionately impact firms that could survive COVID-19 in 2020 without any fiscal support. Even in that scenario, most business failures would not arise from excessively generous 2020 policies, but rather from the contraction of credit to the corporate sector.\",\"PeriodicalId\":18934,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"National Bureau of Economic Research\",\"volume\":\"35 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"19\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"National Bureau of Economic Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28418\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"National Bureau of Economic Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W28418","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in SME failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020, on their own, do not create a 2021 “time-bomb” for SMEs. Rather, business failures and policy costs remain modest. By contrast, credit contraction poses a significant risk. Such a contraction would disproportionately impact firms that could survive COVID-19 in 2020 without any fiscal support. Even in that scenario, most business failures would not arise from excessively generous 2020 policies, but rather from the contraction of credit to the corporate sector.
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