Prediction of arithmetic competence: role of cognitive abilities, socioeconomic variables and the perception of the teacher in Early Childhood Education

The study investigated, in a longitudinal cohort, predictive models of arithmetic competence (AC) in the 1st year from language and executive functions assessed at preschool age. A total of 71 children were evaluated in oral language skills, preliminary writing abilities and executive functions. In the 1st year, the children were also evaluated in AC. Parents provided information on the socioeconomic level and teachers indicated children with difficulties. Language, oral (phonological awareness and vocabulary) and preliminary writing (knowledge of letters, reading and writing of words) abilities, together with indications of difficulty by the teacher in the ECE, were able to explain a mean of 62% of the variability in AC in the 1st year. The findings reveal predictive variables for the performance in arithmetic in the initial stage of Elementary Education, which can assist in early identification and the design of preventive intervention models.