Rain-fed agriculture in the steppe and forest-steppe zone of the Ural River basin and the adaptation of agricultural technologies to changing moisture availability as a way to preserve surface water resources

Aim. The aim of the research was to determine the relationship of winter wheat grain yields with meteorological parameters, the determination of the dynamics and current level and the selection and scientific justification of adaptive agricultural technologies.Material and Methods. Retrospective analysis was undertaken of meteorological conditions and gross winter wheat harvests by standard methods of correlation and regression analysis. The strength of the connection between the data of individual arrays was determined, as well as the identification of joint variation of productive and factorial features by pairwise comparison of their time series.Results. Six joint variations of time series of productive (gross grain harvest) and factorial features (hydrothermal conditions of vegetation periods and structural indicators of crops) with medium and high closeness of correlation, expressed in the form of multiple regression equations, were revealed.Conclusion. The results of the studies indicate a close direct relationship between gross grain harvest and yield from the harvesting area (r = 0.79), which in turn is inversely dependent (to an average degree) on the sum of the active air temperatures of the entire period from sowing to harvesting (r = 0.64). Из осадков различных периодов вегетации преимущественное прямое влияние на урожайность зерна оказывают осадки холодного периода года (r = 0.49) и всего активного периода вегетации от начала парования до уборки (r = 0.39). Of the precipitation of different periods of vegetation, the predominant direct effect on grain yield is exerted by precipitation during the cold period of the year (r = 0.49) and the entire active period of vegetation from the beginning of fallow to harvest (r = 0.39). The effect of amounts of precipitation for certain short periods of vegetation is much lower. Under current conditions, the stability of winter wheat grain production will be determined by the adaptability of agricultural technologies to the increasing aridity of the climate, which significantly worsens the moisture supply of plants.