出口多样化与经济增长:新兴市场和发展中国家的阈值回归方法

P. Trinh, Hoang Thi Thuy
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的:研究44个新兴市场和发展中国家出口多样化与经济增长之间的非线性关系。方法:采用阈值回归方法对1995 - 2015年的数据进行分析。从地域和产品两个方面衡量出口多样化分别用Herfindahl-Hirschman市场集中度指数和总体Theil指数。结果表明,出口多样化与经济增长之间存在非线性关系。在门槛以上,多样化的出口市场和产品促进经济增长。低于阈值,市场和产品多样化与增长之间的正相关关系不显著。启示-研究表明,新兴市场和发展中国家的出口多样化战略应在出口多样化水平高于阈值时慎重考虑,这通常发生在多样化的后期。原创性-该研究根据多样化程度而不是发展程度来调查非线性。通过这种方法,可以确定阈值,以显示不同制度下经济增长是如何受到影响的。
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Export diversification and economic growth: A threshold regression approach for emerging markets and developing countries
Purpose - This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between export diversification and economic growth in 44 emerging markets and developing countries. Methods - The threshold regression methodology is employed to analyze data for the period between 1995 and 2015. Export diversifications in terms of both geography and product are measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman market concentration index and overall Theil index, respectively. Findings -  The results demonstrate a nonlinear relationship between export diversification and economic growth. Above the threshold, diversified export markets and products boost economic growth. Below the threshold, the positive relationship between diversification in both markets and products and growth is insignificant. Implications -  The research implies that export diversification strategy in emerging markets and developing countries should be considered carefully when the level of export diversification is higher than the threshold, which usually occurs in the later stage of diversification. Originality - The study investigates nonlinearity in terms of degrees of diversification instead of degrees of development. With this approach, the threshold is identified to show how economic growth is affected under different regimes.
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来源期刊
自引率
20.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
12 weeks
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